Climate Risk in Nattai, NSW

Nattai, New South Wales· Wingecarribee

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Nattai is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for residents and infrastructure. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Nattai

increasing

Flood

65/100

Nattai faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Nattai River and surrounding waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Nattai has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

40/100

Nattai experiences moderate heat risk. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Heatwave frequency

stable

Coastal

10/100

Nattai is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Nattai

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Nattai experiences moderate heat risk. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Heatwave frequency
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Nattai is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

bushfire Risk

70/100

Nattai has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Nattai River
Elevation Range: 400-500m
Flood Zone: Areas near the Nattai River are designated as flood zones.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Nattai, leading to property damage and evacuations.

Source

2016

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Nattai River to flood, impacting low-lying areas and disrupting transportation.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, leading to increased demand for electricity and strain on healthcare services.

Source

2020

bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, causing widespread damage and smoke haze.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Nattai is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly flooding and bushfires. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns, vegetation clearing, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers, public awareness campaigns, and early warning systems.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Nattai's Climate Risk Profile

Nattai, NSW, is located in a region that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and proximity to the Nattai River, and bushfires due to hotter, drier conditions and surrounding bushland.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase as climate change leads to more extreme rainfall events. This can impact properties located near waterways and low-lying areas. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern for Nattai. The region's dry climate and abundant vegetation make it susceptible to bushfires, particularly during the summer months. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfires.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Nattai. As temperatures rise, the risk of heat-related illnesses increases, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves.

While Nattai is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events, can still have indirect consequences for the region.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Wingecarribee Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Nattai?

The main climate change risks for Nattai are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Nattai?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Nattai?

Wingecarribee Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the risks associated with climate change.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Nattai?

You can prepare your home for flooding by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your property is properly drained.

What should I do during a bushfire in Nattai?

During a bushfire, you should follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and protect your property by clearing vegetation and having a bushfire survival plan.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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