Climate Risk Assessment for Ournie, NSW

Ournie, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Ournie faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ournie

increasing

Flood

65/100

Ournie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

48/100

The area around Ournie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Ournie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Ournie is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ournie

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Ournie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Ournie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Ournie is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

48/100

The area around Ournie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and ensure property is adequately protected.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Murray River
Elevation Range
150-180m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected

Historical flood data indicates past events have impacted low-lying areas near the river.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves typically occur in January and February, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several consecutive days.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
500 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

The Murray River experienced moderate flooding, impacting low-lying areas around Ournie.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Ournie.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for cooling.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along the Murray River, with some localized impacts on Ournie.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire485.1(+0.3)5.3(+0.5)
heat505.7(+0.7)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Ournie is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and improve bushfire management practices.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to address potential water scarcity due to climate change.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ournie's Climate Risk Profile

Ournie, located in New South Wales, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that can impact vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a significant risk due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Climate change models predict more intense rainfall events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfires pose another threat, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation increases the risk, and hotter, drier conditions are expected to worsen the situation. Preparedness and awareness are crucial for mitigating bushfire risks.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This can have significant impacts on public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Ournie is not located near the coast, coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Ournie?

Ournie faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Ournie?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What can residents do to prepare for bushfires?

Residents should clear vegetation around their homes, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

What measures are being taken to address flood risks in Ournie?

The local council is working to improve drainage systems and implement flood mitigation measures.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections