Climate Risk Assessment for Ournie, NSW
Ournie faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ournie
Flood
Ournie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
Bushfire
The area around Ournie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Ournie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Ournie is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ournie
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Ournie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
flood Risk
Ournie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
- ·Inadequate drainage
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Ournie is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The area around Ournie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Strong winds
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.3
2050
5.8
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and ensure property is adequately protected.
- 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
- 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Murray River
- Elevation Range
- 150-180m
- Flood Zone
- Potentially affected
Historical flood data indicates past events have impacted low-lying areas near the river.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent
- Planning Overlay
- RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 32.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Heatwaves typically occur in January and February, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several consecutive days.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 500 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
The Murray River experienced moderate flooding, impacting low-lying areas around Ournie.
SourceBushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Ournie.
SourceA prolonged heatwave in January resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for cooling.
SourceMinor flooding occurred along the Murray River, with some localized impacts on Ournie.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 65 | 7.0(+0.5) | 7.5(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 48 | 5.1(+0.3) | 5.3(+0.5) |
| heat | 50 | 5.7(+0.7) | 6.2(+1.2) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Ournie is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
ImmediateImplement community education programs and improve bushfire management practices.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreHeatwave Action Plan
Near-termDevelop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreWater Conservation
Long-termPromote water conservation measures to address potential water scarcity due to climate change.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Ournie's Climate Risk Profile
Ournie, located in New South Wales, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that can impact vulnerable populations.
Flooding is a significant risk due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Climate change models predict more intense rainfall events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.
Bushfires pose another threat, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation increases the risk, and hotter, drier conditions are expected to worsen the situation. Preparedness and awareness are crucial for mitigating bushfire risks.
Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This can have significant impacts on public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
While Ournie is not located near the coast, coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS
Local Government Resources
UNKNOWN
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Ournie?
Ournie faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change.
How will climate change affect property values in Ournie?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.
What can residents do to prepare for bushfires?
Residents should clear vegetation around their homes, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.
What measures are being taken to address flood risks in Ournie?
The local council is working to improve drainage systems and implement flood mitigation measures.
How can I stay safe during a heatwave?
Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments.
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