Climate Risk in Picnic Point, NSW

Picnic Point, New South Wales· 2213
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Picnic Point faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by flooding and heat. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key factors contributing to the flood risk. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Picnic Point

increasing

Flood

75/100

Picnic Point is located near the Georges River and is susceptible to flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events and king tides. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

While not immediately adjacent to large bushland areas, Picnic Point faces a moderate bushfire risk due to nearby reserves and potential ember attack during severe fire weather. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Picnic Point is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban areas within the suburb may experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

55/100

Located near the Georges River, Picnic Point is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise. Increased storm surge events could further exacerbate these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Picnic Point

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Picnic Point is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban areas within the suburb may experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

75/100

Picnic Point is located near the Georges River and is susceptible to flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events and king tides. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Located near the Georges River, Picnic Point is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise. Increased storm surge events could further exacerbate these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

While not immediately adjacent to large bushland areas, Picnic Point faces a moderate bushfire risk due to nearby reserves and potential ember attack during severe fire weather. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and ember attack potential.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise on property value.
  • 5.Ensure adequate insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
2-10 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

Historical flood data indicates that parts of Picnic Point have been affected by flooding in the past. The council has implemented some flood mitigation measures, but further upgrades may be necessary.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 2km to nearest reserve
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While not directly bordering dense bushland, the suburb is close enough to be affected by ember attack during bushfire events. Residents should maintain a defensible space around their homes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average maximum temperature in January is expected to increase with climate change, leading to more frequent and intense heat stress events. Vulnerable populations should take precautions during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near the river are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the riverbank.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Georges River affected low-lying areas of Picnic Point.

Source
2002
bushfireMinor

Bushfires in surrounding areas caused smoke haze and increased fire risk in Picnic Point.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused flooding in Picnic Point, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood758.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal555.9(+0.4)6.3(+0.8)

By 2030, Picnic Point is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks. Rainfall intensity and sea levels are expected to rise, increasing the likelihood of flooding. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Restore and Protect Coastal Ecosystems

Long-term

Protect and restore mangroves and other coastal ecosystems to provide natural protection against sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Picnic Point's Climate Risk Profile

Picnic Point, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to the Georges River makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding, which is expected to worsen with climate change due to increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise. This poses a threat to properties and infrastructure located near the river.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with potential for ember attack from nearby bushland areas. Hotter, drier conditions will likely increase the frequency and severity of bushfires in the region. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared for bushfire season.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The urban heat island effect may exacerbate temperatures in built-up areas.

Sea level rise and storm surge also pose a threat to Picnic Point, potentially leading to coastal inundation and erosion. Planning for these impacts is crucial to protect coastal assets and communities. Adaptation measures, such as improved drainage and building codes, can help mitigate these risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Picnic Point?

The main climate change risks for Picnic Point are flooding, heatwaves, and sea level rise. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels are expected to worsen flooding, while heatwaves will become more frequent and intense. Sea level rise poses a long-term threat to coastal areas.

How will climate change affect property values in Picnic Point?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk. Properties located further from the river may be less affected. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase due to climate change risks.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Picnic Point?

The City of Canterbury Bankstown is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to address the risks facing Picnic Point. These strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and updating building codes.

How can residents prepare for heatwaves in Picnic Point?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What should I do if my property is affected by flooding in Picnic Point?

If your property is affected by flooding, contact the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) for assistance. Follow their instructions and evacuate if necessary. After the flood, contact your insurance company and the council to report the damage.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections