Climate Risk Profile: Rocky Glen, NSW

Rocky Glen, New South Wales· Mid-Western Regional

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Rocky Glen faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Residents should prepare for hotter temperatures and potential disruptions to infrastructure.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rocky Glen

increasing

Flood

60/100

Rocky Glen faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby creeks. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Local topography

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Rocky Glen has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate this risk, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

40/100

Rocky Glen experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Rocky Glen is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rocky Glen

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Rocky Glen experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Rocky Glen faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby creeks. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Local topography
·Creek overflow

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Rocky Glen is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Rocky Glen has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate this risk, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage limitations.
4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Cudgegong River
Elevation Range: 300-350m
Flood Zone: Potentially affected areas near the Cudgegong River

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Cudgegong River to flood, affecting low-lying areas of Rocky Glen.

Source

2019

bushfireMajor

A severe bushfire impacted areas near Rocky Glen, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C affected Rocky Glen, leading to health concerns.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Rocky Glen is projected to experience an increase in flood and bushfire risk due to more extreme weather events. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Resilience Building

Long-term

Promote community resilience through education and awareness programs, empowering residents to prepare for and respond to climate risks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Rocky Glen's Climate Risk Profile

Rocky Glen, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from heavy rainfall and bushfires due to dry conditions and proximity to bushland.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for property damage and disruption to daily life. Climate change projections indicate more intense rainfall events, increasing the likelihood of flooding in low-lying areas. Residents should stay informed about flood warnings and take necessary precautions.

Bushfire risk is also high, particularly during the summer months. Hot, dry conditions create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a threat to homes and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, impacting vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and seeking air-conditioned environments.

While Rocky Glen is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, may still be felt. Adapting to these changes is crucial for ensuring the long-term resilience of the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Mid-Western Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Mid-Western Regional Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Rocky Glen?

The main climate risks are flooding from heavy rainfall and bushfires due to dry conditions and proximity to bushland. Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense.

How is climate change expected to impact Rocky Glen in the future?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, bushfires, and heatwaves. This could lead to property damage, health concerns, and disruptions to daily life.

What can residents do to prepare for climate risks?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate risks by staying informed about weather warnings, developing emergency plans, and taking precautions to protect their homes and health.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Mid-Western Regional Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, such as investing in flood defenses and promoting bushfire preparedness.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Rocky Glen?

You can find more information about climate risks from the Bureau of Meteorology, the NSW Rural Fire Service, and the Mid-Western Regional Council.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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