Climate Risk Assessment for Rocky Point, NSW

Rocky Point, New South Wales· Georges River

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Rocky Point faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rocky Point

increasing

Flood

65/100

Rocky Point is located near the Georges River and has a moderate risk of flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Rocky Point has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its location and urban density. However, areas closer to bushland may experience higher risk.

Key drivers:

·Vegetation dryness
·Wind patterns

increasing

Heat

60/100

Rocky Point experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Rocky Point is located near the coast and may be exposed to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The risk is expected to increase over time.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rocky Point

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Rocky Point experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Rocky Point is located near the Georges River and has a moderate risk of flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Rocky Point is located near the coast and may be exposed to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The risk is expected to increase over time.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Rocky Point has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its location and urban density. However, areas closer to bushland may experience higher risk.

Primary Drivers

·Vegetation dryness
·Wind patterns
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Georges River
Elevation Range: 5-15 meters
Flood Zone: Partially within flood zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 0.5-2 km
Planning Overlay: Some areas have bushfire prone land overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 2.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low to moderate
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas near the Georges River.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions.

Source

2016

stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized flooding and power outages.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.8(+0.8)	7.5(+1.5)
coastal	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Rocky Point is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Sea level rise will also pose a greater threat to coastal areas.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to better manage increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, such as establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from erosion and inundation, such as building seawalls and restoring natural habitats.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Raise community awareness

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, online resources, and community events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Rocky Point's Climate Risk Profile

Rocky Point, NSW, is a suburb that faces a range of climate-related challenges. Its proximity to the Georges River makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with more intense rainfall events becoming more frequent.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Rocky Point. As global temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and severe heatwaves, posing a threat to the health of vulnerable residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

Being near the coast, Rocky Point is also vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. Coastal erosion and inundation could become more common, potentially affecting property values and infrastructure.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of NSW, it is still a factor to consider, especially for properties located closer to bushland areas. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place in case of an emergency.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · Georges River Council

Local Government Resources

Georges River Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Rocky Point?

The main climate risks in Rocky Point are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

How will climate change affect Rocky Point in the future?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events, and sea level rise will pose a greater threat to coastal areas.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Rocky Point?

You can take steps to reduce your risk of flooding, such as elevating your home and purchasing flood insurance. You can also take steps to protect yourself from heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Rocky Point?

You can find more information about climate change in Rocky Point on the Georges River Council website and the NSW government website.

Is my property at risk of flooding?

You can check the Georges River Council flood maps to see if your property is located in a flood-prone area.

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30-120%

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