Climate Risk in Rose Bay, New South Wales

Rose Bay, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Rose Bay faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are key concerns for the suburb.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

6.7

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rose Bay

increasing

Flood

65/100

Rose Bay has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Rose Bay has a relatively low risk of bushfire due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, nearby parks and reserves could pose a risk during extreme weather conditions.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

70/100

Rose Bay is susceptible to heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

67/100

Rose Bay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and erosion. The suburb's proximity to the coastline makes it vulnerable to these impacts.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rose Bay

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Rose Bay is susceptible to heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Rose Bay has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

67/100

Rose Bay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and erosion. The suburb's proximity to the coastline makes it vulnerable to these impacts.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Rose Bay has a relatively low risk of bushfire due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, nearby parks and reserves could pose a risk during extreme weather conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation
·High winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increased premiums possible due to flood and coastal risks

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and council data
2.Assess property's elevation and drainage
3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise
4.Review insurance options and costs

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Rose Bay
Elevation Range: 0-30 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal and riverine

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 1-2 km to pockets of bushland
Planning Overlay: Some areas may have bushfire prone land overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying areas exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk: Moderate erosion risk along some foreshore areas

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Rose Bay, impacting some residential and commercial properties.

Source

2020

stormModerate

Severe storms with strong winds caused damage to trees and power lines in Rose Bay, leading to power outages.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions in Sydney led to increased heat stress and hospital admissions in Rose Bay.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.2(+0.7)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.3(+0.3)
heat	70	7.7(+0.7)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	67	7.1(+0.4)	7.6(+0.9)

By 2030, Rose Bay is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and coastal flooding posing the greatest challenges. Adaptation measures will be crucial to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve the capacity and resilience of stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect and restore coastal ecosystems

Long-term

Protect and restore coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and saltmarshes to provide natural buffers against sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water-sensitive urban design

Near-term

Encourage the use of water-sensitive urban design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Rose Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Rose Bay, located in Sydney's eastern suburbs, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to the coast and low-lying areas make it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of residents.

Flooding is a major concern for Rose Bay, with heavy rainfall events leading to stormwater runoff and potential inundation. Sea level rise is exacerbating this risk, as it increases the likelihood of coastal flooding and erosion. The suburb's aging infrastructure may also struggle to cope with the increased demands placed upon it by more frequent and intense storms.

Heatwaves are another significant threat, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other health problems. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and pavement, can further exacerbate the impact of heatwaves.

Coastal erosion is also a growing concern, as sea level rise and increased storm intensity threaten to erode the suburb's beaches and foreshores. This can damage property, disrupt recreational activities, and threaten the local ecosystem.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes investing in infrastructure upgrades, implementing adaptation measures, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Woollahra Municipal Council

Local Government Resources

Woollahra Municipal Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Rose Bay?

Rose Bay faces significant risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are key concerns.

How will sea level rise affect Rose Bay?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal flooding and erosion in Rose Bay, potentially damaging property and infrastructure along the foreshore.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Rose Bay?

Woollahra Municipal Council is implementing various measures to address climate change, including upgrading stormwater drainage infrastructure and promoting water-sensitive urban design.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Rose Bay?

During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Rose Bay?

You can find more information about flood risks in Rose Bay on the Woollahra Municipal Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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What A$69 could save you from

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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