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Climate Risk in Roseberry, NSW

Roseberry, New South Wales· City of Sydney· 2018
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Roseberry, NSW, faces a medium overall climate risk. The suburb is particularly vulnerable to heatwaves and flooding, with increasing risks projected due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
4.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Roseberry

increasing

Flood

60/100

Roseberry faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

Roseberry has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and distance from significant bushland. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Roseberry is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

40/100

Roseberry faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise impacts on nearby coastal areas. While not directly on the coast, infrastructure and communities could be affected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Roseberry

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Roseberry is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Roseberry faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

40/100

Roseberry faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise impacts on nearby coastal areas. While not directly on the coast, infrastructure and communities could be affected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Roseberry has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and distance from significant bushland. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurers are likely to increase premiums in response to increased flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Alexandra Canal
Elevation Range
5-15 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within a 1% AEP flood zone

Parts of Roseberry are susceptible to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
>5 km
Planning Overlay
Not within a designated bushfire prone area
Bushfire Prone Area
No

The risk of bushfire is low due to the urban environment.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The suburb experiences several days above 35°C each summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
4 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low to moderate exposure due to proximity to Botany Bay
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Roseberry.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall event led to flash flooding and disruption of transport networks.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions resulted in increased hospital admissions.

Source
2019
heatwaveMajor

Record-breaking temperatures during the 2019 heatwave put significant strain on infrastructure and public health services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.3(+0.3)3.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal404.4(+0.4)4.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Roseberry is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity, and a slight increase in bushfire risk. Sea level rise may begin to impact nearby coastal areas.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement urban greening

Immediate

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a community-based plan to support vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen building codes

Near-term

Update building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to heatwaves and flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Educate residents on climate risks

Long-term

Provide information and resources to help residents understand and prepare for climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Roseberry's Climate Risk Profile

Roseberry, located in New South Wales, is an inner-city suburb that is increasingly exposed to climate change impacts. The primary risks include heatwaves, flooding, and potential impacts from sea level rise affecting nearby coastal areas.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat, especially to vulnerable populations like the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect further intensifies these risks, making adaptation measures crucial.

Flooding is another concern, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Proactive measures to manage stormwater and protect properties are essential.

While Roseberry is not directly on the coast, sea level rise and coastal erosion in adjacent areas could indirectly impact the suburb through infrastructure and economic disruptions. Monitoring and planning for these potential impacts are important.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community-level initiatives, and government policies. By taking proactive steps, Roseberry can enhance its resilience and protect its residents from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · City of Sydney Council

Local Government Resources

City of Sydney

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Roseberry?

The main risks are heatwaves, flooding, and potential impacts from sea level rise affecting nearby coastal areas.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Roseberry?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing window coverings and insulation to reduce heat in your home.

What should I do during a flood in Roseberry?

Stay informed about weather warnings, avoid driving through floodwaters, and move to higher ground if necessary. Follow instructions from emergency services.

Is my property in Roseberry at risk of flooding?

Check the City of Sydney's flood maps to determine if your property is in a flood-prone area. Contact the council for more information about flood mitigation measures.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Roseberry?

The City of Sydney has a climate action plan that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Roseberry?

Consult the City of Sydney's website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, and the Bureau of Meteorology for the latest information and resources.

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