Climate Risk in Rosebery, NSW

Rosebery, New South Wales· City of Sydney· 2018

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Rosebery is a suburb in Sydney facing moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rosebery

increasing

Flood

65/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Rosebery has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban environment and distance from significant bushland. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

60/100

Rosebery is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Key drivers:

·Rising temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to increased coastal inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rosebery

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Rosebery is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Primary Drivers

·Rising temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Sea level rise

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to increased coastal inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Rosebery has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban environment and distance from significant bushland. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Proximity to green spaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Alexandra Canal
Elevation Range: 5-15 meters
Flood Zone: Partially within a 1% AEP flood zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2 km to Centennial Park
Planning Overlay: Not within a designated bushfire prone area
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low to moderate exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk: Low erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Rosebery, leading to road closures and property damage.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2015

stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized flooding and power outages in Rosebery.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
coastal	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Rosebery is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Increase green spaces

Near-term

Plant more trees and create green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal protection measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Rosebery's Climate Risk Profile

Rosebery, located in Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying areas make it susceptible to flooding, which is expected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity. Rising temperatures and the urban heat island effect will likely lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing health risks to residents.

Coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surges, also pose a threat to Rosebery. These factors could lead to coastal inundation and erosion, potentially damaging infrastructure and property. The community needs to take proactive measures to adapt to these changing conditions.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved stormwater management, increased green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect, and coastal protection measures. Residents should also be aware of emergency plans and take steps to protect their homes and families.

Understanding the specific risks and taking appropriate adaptation measures will be crucial for ensuring the long-term resilience and sustainability of Rosebery in the face of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · City of Sydney Council

Local Government Resources

City of Sydney

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Rosebery?

Rosebery faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Rosebery?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Rosebery?

The City of Sydney is implementing various strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including improving stormwater drainage and increasing green spaces.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Rosebery?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Rosebery?

You can find flood maps and information on the City of Sydney website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

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30-120%

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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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