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Climate Risk Profile: South Arm, NSW

South Arm, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

South Arm, NSW, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and flooding. The suburb's location makes it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for South Arm

increasing

Flood

60/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in South Arm is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change may lead to longer fire seasons and more intense fires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

South Arm is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

50/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to sea level rise. These risks could impact coastal properties and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for South Arm

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

South Arm is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to sea level rise. These risks could impact coastal properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in South Arm is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change may lead to longer fire seasons and more intense fires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort.
  • 4.Evaluate coastal erosion and inundation risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
South Arm River
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Likely

Low-lying areas near the river are particularly vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of South Arm.

Source
2017
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near South Arm caused smoke haze and required firefighting efforts.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected South Arm, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to riverine flooding impacting some properties in South Arm.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, South Arm is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave intensity and flood frequency.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and construct flood barriers to protect properties from rising floodwaters.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate erosion and inundation risks.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies through community awareness programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About South Arm's Climate Risk Profile

South Arm is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise pose significant challenges to the community and its infrastructure.

The risk of flooding is a major concern for South Arm. Increased rainfall intensity and potential sea level rise could lead to more frequent and severe flood events, impacting homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. Effective flood management strategies are essential to mitigate these risks.

Bushfire risk is also present, with surrounding vegetation posing a threat during dry conditions. Longer fire seasons and more intense fires, driven by climate change, could increase the likelihood of bushfires affecting the suburb. Preparedness and mitigation efforts are crucial.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense in South Arm, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Implementing heat mitigation strategies and ensuring access to cooling centers are important measures.

Coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, are also a concern for South Arm due to sea level rise. Protecting coastal properties and infrastructure from these risks requires careful planning and adaptation measures.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for South Arm?

South Arm faces increasing risks from heatwaves, flooding, bushfires, and coastal hazards due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in South Arm?

Property values in South Arm may be affected by increasing climate risks, particularly in areas prone to flooding or coastal erosion.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves in South Arm?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.

What flood mitigation measures are being implemented in South Arm?

Flood mitigation measures in South Arm may include drainage upgrades, flood barriers, and early warning systems.

Where can I find more information about bushfire risks in South Arm?

More information about bushfire risks in South Arm can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service website.

Is South Arm considered a high-risk area for climate change impacts?

South Arm is considered to be at medium risk, requiring proactive adaptation measures to mitigate potential impacts.

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$300B+
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30-120%
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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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