Climate Risk in South Turramurra, NSW
South Turramurra is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. The risk of these hazards is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these risks.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for South Turramurra
Flood
South Turramurra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
South Turramurra has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
South Turramurra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.
Key drivers:
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
South Turramurra has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for South Turramurra
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
South Turramurra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
flood Risk
South Turramurra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
South Turramurra has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
South Turramurra has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and flooding.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value or slower price growth.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
- 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
- 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Lane Cove River
- Elevation Range
- 60-120m
- Flood Zone
- Areas near creeks and waterways
Some properties are located near flood-prone areas along the Lane Cove River and its tributaries.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire Prone Land
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The suburb is designated as a bushfire prone area due to its proximity to dense bushland.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Average maximum temperatures in January are increasing, leading to more frequent heat stress events.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 15 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Climate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 65 | 6.7(+0.2) | 7.0(+0.5) |
| bushfire | 70 | 7.3(+0.3) | 7.6(+0.6) |
| heat | 40 | 4.1(+0.1) | 4.4(+0.4) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under a moderate emissions scenario, South Turramurra is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and bushfire risk.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Prepare a Bushfire Survival Plan
ImmediateDevelop and practice a bushfire survival plan with your family, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImprove Home's Flood Resilience
Near-termInstall flood barriers, elevate electrical appliances, and ensure proper drainage to minimize flood damage.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreCreate a Defensible Space
ImmediateMaintain a clear area around your home by removing dry vegetation and flammable materials to reduce bushfire risk.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreInstall Air Conditioning or Cooling Systems
Near-termInstall air conditioning or other cooling systems to mitigate the impacts of increasing heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport Local Climate Action Initiatives
Long-termParticipate in local initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout South Turramurra's Climate Risk Profile
South Turramurra, located in the Ku-ring-gai Council, is a suburb with a mix of residential areas and bushland. This proximity to natural areas contributes to the suburb's high bushfire risk, especially during dry seasons. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfire events.
Flooding is another significant concern for South Turramurra. Heavy rainfall can cause creeks and waterways to overflow, impacting properties in low-lying areas. The increasing intensity of rainfall events due to climate change will likely increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the suburb.
While the suburb is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the overall impact of climate change, including rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, will affect the community. It's important for residents to take measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.
Understanding these risks and taking proactive steps can help protect properties and ensure the safety and well-being of the community. This includes preparing for emergencies, maintaining properties to reduce fire hazards, and supporting local initiatives to address climate change.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Ku-ring-gai Council
Local Government Resources
Ku-ring-gai Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks in South Turramurra?
The main climate risks in South Turramurra are flooding and bushfires, with increasing heatwaves also being a concern.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in South Turramurra?
You can prepare your home by creating a defensible space, maintaining your property, and having a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a flood in South Turramurra?
During a flood, stay informed about warnings, avoid driving through floodwaters, and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
How is the Ku-ring-gai Council addressing climate change?
The Ku-ring-gai Council has implemented various sustainability initiatives and is working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.
Where can I find more information about flood risks in South Turramurra?
You can find more information about flood risks on the Ku-ring-gai Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
Are there any community groups in South Turramurra focused on environmental sustainability?
Yes, there are several community groups in the Ku-ring-gai area that focus on environmental sustainability. Check the Ku-ring-gai Council website for a list of local groups and initiatives.
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