Climate Risk in South Turramurra, NSW

South Turramurra, New South Wales· Ku-ring-gai· 2074
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

South Turramurra is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. The risk of these hazards is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for South Turramurra

increasing

Flood

65/100

South Turramurra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

South Turramurra has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

40/100

South Turramurra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

South Turramurra has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for South Turramurra

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

South Turramurra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

South Turramurra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

South Turramurra has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

South Turramurra has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and flooding.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value or slower price growth.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lane Cove River
Elevation Range
60-120m
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks and waterways

Some properties are located near flood-prone areas along the Lane Cove River and its tributaries.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is designated as a bushfire prone area due to its proximity to dense bushland.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are increasing, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of South Turramurra.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park threatened properties in South Turramurra.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused power outages and minor property damage in South Turramurra.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near South Turramurra, requiring residents to be prepared for potential evacuation.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.7(+0.2)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire707.3(+0.3)7.6(+0.6)
heat404.1(+0.1)4.4(+0.4)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, South Turramurra is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and bushfire risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Prepare a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Develop and practice a bushfire survival plan with your family, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home's Flood Resilience

Near-term

Install flood barriers, elevate electrical appliances, and ensure proper drainage to minimize flood damage.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Create a Defensible Space

Immediate

Maintain a clear area around your home by removing dry vegetation and flammable materials to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install Air Conditioning or Cooling Systems

Near-term

Install air conditioning or other cooling systems to mitigate the impacts of increasing heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Climate Action Initiatives

Long-term

Participate in local initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About South Turramurra's Climate Risk Profile

South Turramurra, located in the Ku-ring-gai Council, is a suburb with a mix of residential areas and bushland. This proximity to natural areas contributes to the suburb's high bushfire risk, especially during dry seasons. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfire events.

Flooding is another significant concern for South Turramurra. Heavy rainfall can cause creeks and waterways to overflow, impacting properties in low-lying areas. The increasing intensity of rainfall events due to climate change will likely increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the suburb.

While the suburb is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the overall impact of climate change, including rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, will affect the community. It's important for residents to take measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.

Understanding these risks and taking proactive steps can help protect properties and ensure the safety and well-being of the community. This includes preparing for emergencies, maintaining properties to reduce fire hazards, and supporting local initiatives to address climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Ku-ring-gai Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in South Turramurra?

The main climate risks in South Turramurra are flooding and bushfires, with increasing heatwaves also being a concern.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in South Turramurra?

You can prepare your home by creating a defensible space, maintaining your property, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood in South Turramurra?

During a flood, stay informed about warnings, avoid driving through floodwaters, and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

How is the Ku-ring-gai Council addressing climate change?

The Ku-ring-gai Council has implemented various sustainability initiatives and is working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in South Turramurra?

You can find more information about flood risks on the Ku-ring-gai Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Are there any community groups in South Turramurra focused on environmental sustainability?

Yes, there are several community groups in the Ku-ring-gai area that focus on environmental sustainability. Check the Ku-ring-gai Council website for a list of local groups and initiatives.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections