Climate Risk Assessment: Suffolk Park, NSW

Suffolk Park, New South Wales· Byron· 2481

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Suffolk Park faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, bushfires, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.2

Heat

7.1

Coastal

5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Suffolk Park

increasing

Flood

65/100

Suffolk Park faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Belongil Creek. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The bushfire risk in Suffolk Park is moderate, with areas adjacent to bushland being more vulnerable. Drier conditions and increased fuel loads contribute to the risk.

Key drivers:

·Drier climate
·Increased fuel load

increasing

Heat

71/100

Suffolk Park is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Global warming
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are increasing threats in Suffolk Park due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Suffolk Park

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Suffolk Park is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Global warming
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Suffolk Park faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Belongil Creek. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are increasing threats in Suffolk Park due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The bushfire risk in Suffolk Park is moderate, with areas adjacent to bushland being more vulnerable. Drier conditions and increased fuel loads contribute to the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Drier climate
·Increased fuel load
·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Belongil Creek
Elevation Range: 0-20m
Flood Zone: Coastal floodplain

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Coastal erosion is an ongoing concern.

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted the region, causing significant damage to infrastructure and properties.

Source

2019

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Suffolk Park, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source

2017

stormModerate

Severe storm caused flash flooding and damage to infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	42	4.7(+0.5)	5.2(+1.0)
heat	71	7.6(+0.5)	8.1(+1.0)
coastal	54	5.9(+0.5)	6.4(+1.0)

By 2030, Suffolk Park is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with rising sea levels, more frequent heatwaves, and increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Vegetation Management

Near-term

Implement vegetation management strategies to reduce bushfire risk in areas adjacent to bushland.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Immediate

Raise community awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures through educational programs and workshops.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Suffolk Park's Climate Risk Profile

Suffolk Park, located in the Byron Shire, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten coastal areas, leading to erosion and inundation. More frequent and intense heatwaves pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations. Changes in rainfall patterns increase the risk of both flooding and bushfires.

The area's proximity to Belongil Creek and the coast makes it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the presence of surrounding bushland and drier conditions. The combination of these factors necessitates proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and infrastructure.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Sea levels are expected to continue rising, exacerbating coastal erosion and inundation. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, placing additional strain on infrastructure and public health services. Changes in rainfall patterns will further increase the risk of both flooding and bushfires.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort involving local government, residents, and other stakeholders. Implementing adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and raising awareness about climate risks, is crucial for building resilience in Suffolk Park.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Byron Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Byron Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Suffolk Park?

The main climate change risks in Suffolk Park include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to rising sea levels.

How is the council addressing climate change risks?

The Byron Shire Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and raising community awareness.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can prepare for climate change impacts by checking flood maps, assessing their property's vulnerability to coastal erosion, and inquiring about past flood or bushfire events.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Suffolk Park?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Suffolk Park on the Byron Shire Council website, the NSW Department of Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Are insurance premiums likely to increase due to climate change?

Yes, insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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