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Climate Risk in Swanhaven, NSW

Swanhaven, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Swanhaven faces a number of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these risks.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Swanhaven

increasing

Flood

65/100

Swanhaven faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Swanhaven has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

71/100

Swanhaven is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

54/100

Swanhaven faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Swanhaven

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Swanhaven is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Swanhaven faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Swanhaven faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Swanhaven has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values in high-risk areas may be negatively impacted.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider heat mitigation measures
  • 4.Evaluate coastal erosion potential

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local River
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Some areas near the river are prone to flash flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western edge of the suburb is particularly vulnerable.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Urban areas experience higher temperatures due to the heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas may be exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted low-lying areas of Swanhaven, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires threatened the outskirts of Swanhaven, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Swanhaven, affecting local businesses and residences.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat717.8(+0.7)8.1(+1.0)
coastal545.8(+0.4)6.2(+0.8)

By 2030, Swanhaven is projected to experience a notable increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and coastal flooding posing the most significant challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, such as vegetation management and fire breaks.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a community heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to reduce erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Swanhaven's Climate Risk Profile

Swanhaven is a suburb in New South Wales that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb is located near waterways, making it susceptible to flooding. Additionally, the surrounding vegetation increases the risk of bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Flooding is a significant concern for Swanhaven. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to increase the frequency and severity of floods. This could damage property, disrupt infrastructure, and pose a risk to human life.

Bushfires are another major threat to Swanhaven. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires. This could destroy homes, damage infrastructure, and impact air quality.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense in Swanhaven. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves.

Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and storm surges, also pose a threat to Swanhaven. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas, damaging property and infrastructure.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Local Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Swanhaven?

Swanhaven faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Swanhaven?

Property values in high-risk areas may be negatively impacted due to increased insurance premiums and potential damage from extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Swanhaven?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Swanhaven?

You can find flood maps and information on the local council's website or the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Swanhaven?

The council is developing a climate strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for details.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Swanhaven, use our analysis tool.

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