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Climate Risk Profile: Tacoma South, NSW

Tacoma South, New South Wales· Central Coast· 2259
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Tacoma South faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly flooding and heatwaves. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
4.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tacoma South

increasing

Flood

65/100

Tacoma South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Tacoma South is moderate due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase bushfire frequency and intensity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Tacoma South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

40/100

Tacoma South faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise. This includes potential inundation of low-lying areas and increased coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tacoma South

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Tacoma South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Tacoma South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

40/100

Tacoma South faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise. This includes potential inundation of low-lying areas and increased coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Tacoma South is moderate due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase bushfire frequency and intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area status
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
  • 3.Review insurance coverage and potential premium increases
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wyong River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Some properties are located in areas prone to flash flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone area overlay applies
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties require adequate bushfire protection measures.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas may be exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Minimal erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2007
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Wyong River catchment, impacting Tacoma South.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties in the area, requiring evacuations.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused widespread damage, including power outages and fallen trees.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions put strain on infrastructure and public health services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Tacoma South is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Near-term

Conduct regular vegetation clearing and controlled burns to reduce bushfire fuel loads.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen coastal protection measures

Long-term

Implement coastal erosion control measures and protect coastal ecosystems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community awareness programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tacoma South's Climate Risk Profile

Tacoma South, located in the Central Coast region of New South Wales, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its susceptibility to flooding, while surrounding bushland elevates the risk of bushfires. Rising temperatures are expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a threat to public health.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity is likely to worsen flooding, while drier conditions and higher temperatures will increase the frequency and severity of bushfires. Sea level rise poses a threat to coastal areas, potentially leading to inundation and erosion.

Residents and property owners in Tacoma South should take steps to prepare for these challenges. This includes developing emergency plans, maintaining properties to reduce bushfire risk, and taking precautions during heatwaves. Community-level adaptation measures, such as improved drainage and bushfire management, are also essential.

The local council and state government are working to address climate change risks in the region. This includes developing climate adaptation strategies, investing in infrastructure improvements, and providing information and resources to the community. However, individual action is also crucial to building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Central Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Central Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Tacoma South?

Tacoma South faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

How will climate change affect property values in Tacoma South?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience decreased property values due to increased insurance premiums and potential damage from extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Tacoma South?

You can develop an emergency plan, maintain your property to reduce bushfire risk, take precautions during heatwaves, and stay informed about climate risks and adaptation measures.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Tacoma South?

The Central Coast Council is developing climate adaptation strategies, investing in infrastructure improvements, and providing information and resources to the community.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Tacoma South?

You can find more information on the Central Coast Council website, the NSW State Emergency Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Is Tacoma South a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Tacoma South offers many benefits, potential investors should carefully consider the climate change risks and take appropriate adaptation measures. Consult with local experts and review available climate data before making a decision.

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