Climate Risk in Taree South, New South Wales

Taree South, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Taree South faces a medium level of climate risk, primarily driven by flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to the Manning River increases its vulnerability to flooding, while rising temperatures contribute to heat-related risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Taree South

increasing

Flood

70/100

Taree South faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Taree South is moderate. While not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, the surrounding areas are susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Taree South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Taree South faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas. The impact is less direct than for suburbs on the immediate coastline, but still relevant.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Taree South

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Taree South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Taree South faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Taree South faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas. The impact is less direct than for suburbs on the immediate coastline, but still relevant.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Taree South is moderate. While not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, the surrounding areas are susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increased flood and heat risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider bushfire risk mitigation measures.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Manning River
Elevation Range
5-15m
Flood Zone
Likely

Areas closer to the river are at higher risk of inundation.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
1-2km
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties on the outskirts of Taree South are more vulnerable.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding of the Manning River caused widespread inundation in Taree and surrounding areas, including Taree South.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and heightened fire danger in Taree South.

Source
2017
stormMinor

Severe storms caused localized flooding and power outages in Taree South.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Taree South.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.4(+0.4)

By 2030, Taree South is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from heatwaves and flooding. Bushfire risk will also increase, while coastal risks remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood levees and drainage systems to protect properties from inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Taree South's Climate Risk Profile

Taree South, located in the Mid Coast Council region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The most significant threat is flooding, due to the suburb's location near the Manning River. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This can impact property values, infrastructure, and the safety of residents.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Taree South. As average temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. The urban environment can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves, creating an urban heat island effect.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with surrounding areas susceptible to bushfires during dry periods. While Taree South is not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, embers can travel long distances, posing a threat to properties. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, further elevating this risk.

Coastal risks, while less direct than for coastal suburbs, are still relevant. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values. Residents should stay informed about climate change projections and take steps to adapt to these changing conditions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES NSW · RFS NSW · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Taree South?

The main climate risks facing Taree South are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to the Manning River. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Bushfire risk is moderate, with surrounding areas susceptible to bushfires during dry periods.

How will climate change affect property values in Taree South?

Climate change is likely to negatively impact property values in Taree South due to increased flood and heat risks. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding, while all properties are susceptible to the effects of heatwaves. Buyers may be hesitant to invest in areas with high climate risks, leading to a decline in property values.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change in Taree South?

Residents can take several steps to prepare for climate change, including checking flood maps and insurance costs, assessing their property's vulnerability to heatwaves, considering bushfire risk mitigation measures, and reviewing the council's climate adaptation plans. It is also important to stay informed about climate change projections and take steps to reduce their carbon footprint.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Taree South?

The MidCoast Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address the impacts of climate change in Taree South. These plans include measures to improve flood defenses, develop heat action plans, enhance bushfire preparedness, and strengthen coastal protection. The council is also working to reduce its carbon footprint and promote sustainable development.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Taree South?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Taree South from the MidCoast Council website, the NSW State Emergency Service website, the NSW Rural Fire Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website. These resources provide information about flood maps, bushfire prone areas, heatwave forecasts, and climate change projections.

Is Taree South a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

Investing in property in Taree South requires careful consideration of climate change risks. While the area offers many benefits, potential buyers should be aware of the increasing risks of flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Assessing a property's specific vulnerability and taking appropriate mitigation measures is crucial. Consulting with local experts and reviewing council plans can help make an informed decision.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections