Climate Risk in Taren Point, NSW

Taren Point, New South Wales· Sutherland Shire· 2229
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Taren Point, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Taren Point

increasing

Flood

65/100

Taren Point faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Both riverine and flash flooding are potential concerns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland. While not directly adjacent to large forests, ember attack is a potential threat.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Taren Point experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heat stress events projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Located near the coast, Taren Point is exposed to coastal erosion and sea level rise. The risk is moderate but requires ongoing monitoring and adaptation strategies.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Taren Point

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Taren Point experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heat stress events projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Taren Point faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Both riverine and flash flooding are potential concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Located near the coast, Taren Point is exposed to coastal erosion and sea level rise. The risk is moderate but requires ongoing monitoring and adaptation strategies.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland. While not directly adjacent to large forests, ember attack is a potential threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value over time.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement safety measures.
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Review council planning documents for climate adaptation strategies.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and Riverine

Historical flood data indicates that parts of Taren Point have been affected by flooding in the past. Council flood studies are available for review.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check NSW RFS website for detailed bushfire prone land maps and safety guidelines.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Bureau of Meteorology data shows an increasing trend in average maximum temperatures during summer months.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along exposed foreshores.

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Taren Point.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source
2018
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flooding in parts of the Sutherland Shire, including Taren Point.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.9(+0.4)7.4(+0.9)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)
coastal535.8(+0.5)6.3(+1.0)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Taren Point is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with coastal and flood risks showing the most significant changes.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to manage increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and restore natural coastal habitats to protect against erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide public awareness campaigns to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs and improve building standards in bushfire-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise awareness about climate risks

Immediate

Educate residents about the impacts of climate change and encourage them to take proactive adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Taren Point's Climate Risk Profile

Taren Point, situated in the Sutherland Shire of New South Wales, is a suburb with a mix of residential and commercial areas, and significant waterfront exposure. This location makes it vulnerable to several climate change impacts, most notably flooding and coastal erosion.

The risk of flooding is elevated due to the suburb's low-lying topography and proximity to the Georges River and Botany Bay. Increased rainfall intensity, a projected consequence of climate change, will likely exacerbate this risk, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Both riverine and flash flooding scenarios need to be considered in local planning.

Bushfire risk is present due to the proximity of bushland areas. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, ember attack from distant fires remains a concern, especially during dry and windy conditions. Maintaining vegetation and implementing fire safety measures are crucial.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. The urban environment can amplify this effect, creating urban heat islands. Adaptation strategies should include increasing green spaces and improving building design to reduce heat absorption.

Coastal erosion and sea level rise are significant long-term threats. The suburb's coastline is susceptible to erosion, and rising sea levels will increase the frequency and severity of inundation events. Protecting coastal assets and implementing managed retreat strategies may be necessary.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Sutherland Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Taren Point?

The main risks include flooding, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and bushfire risk.

How is the council addressing flood risk in Taren Point?

The council is upgrading stormwater infrastructure and developing flood management plans.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What is the council doing to protect the coastline from erosion?

The council is implementing coastal protection measures and monitoring sea level changes.

How can I find out if my property is in a bushfire-prone area?

Check the NSW Rural Fire Service website for bushfire-prone land maps.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in the Sutherland Shire?

Visit the Sutherland Shire Council website or the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections