Climate Risk in Tennyson, NSW

Tennyson, New South Wales· Hawkesbury· 2754

High Risk

Updated May 2026

Tennyson, NSW, faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

8.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tennyson

increasing

Flood

85/100

Tennyson faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Hawkesbury River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Tennyson has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation

increasing

Heat

70/100

Tennyson is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

20/100

Tennyson is not directly on the coast, so the risk of coastal inundation is low. However, sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through increased riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tennyson

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Tennyson is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.4

2050

7.8

flood Risk

85/100

Tennyson faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Hawkesbury River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

coastal Risk

20/100

Tennyson is not directly on the coast, so the risk of coastal inundation is low. However, sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through increased riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.2

2050

2.5

bushfire Risk

60/100

Tennyson has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation
·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.7

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price decreases.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value.
4.Review insurance coverage and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Hawkesbury River
Elevation Range: 5-15m
Flood Zone: Yes

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Indirectly through riverine flooding
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodMajor

Major flooding of the Hawkesbury River inundated parts of Tennyson, causing significant damage to homes and businesses.

2021

floodModerate

Moderate flooding of the Hawkesbury River affected low-lying areas in Tennyson.

2019

bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Hawkesbury region caused smoky conditions and prompted evacuations in Tennyson.

2013

floodModerate

The Hawkesbury River flooded, impacting homes and businesses in Tennyson.

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	85	8.8(+0.3)	9.2(+0.7)
bushfire	60	6.2(+0.2)	6.4(+0.4)
heat	70	7.4(+0.4)	7.8(+0.8)
coastal	20	2.1(+0.1)	2.2(+0.2)

By 2030, Tennyson is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Bushfire Mitigation

Near-term

Clear vegetation around homes and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Install air conditioning and develop a heatwave survival plan.

Est. cost: Medium

Raise Home Above Flood Level

Long-term

Raise your home above the 1-in-100 year flood level to protect from future flood events.

Est. cost: High

About Tennyson's Climate Risk Profile

Tennyson, located in the Hawkesbury region of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to the Hawkesbury River makes it particularly susceptible to flooding, which is projected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels. The risk of bushfires is also elevated due to the surrounding bushland and hotter, drier conditions.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. While coastal inundation is not a direct threat, sea level rise can exacerbate riverine flooding.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved flood defenses, bushfire mitigation strategies, and heatwave preparedness plans. Residents should take steps to protect their homes and families from the impacts of climate change.

Longer term, reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to mitigating the worst effects of climate change. This requires a transition to renewable energy sources and sustainable land management practices. Community engagement and education are also essential to building resilience and adapting to a changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Hawkesbury City Council

Local Government Resources

Hawkesbury City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Tennyson?

The main climate change risks in Tennyson are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Flooding is the most significant risk due to the suburb's proximity to the Hawkesbury River.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Tennyson?

You can prepare your home for flooding by raising it above the flood level, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your insurance covers flood damage.

What should I do during a heatwave in Tennyson?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Tennyson?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant materials, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Tennyson?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Tennyson from the Hawkesbury City Council, the NSW State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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Climate Risk in Tennyson, NSW: 2026 Assessment | ClimateNest