Climate Risk Assessment: Timbillica, NSW

Timbillica, New South Wales

High Risk

Updated May 2026

Timbillica faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

8.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Timbillica

increasing

Flood

65/100

Timbillica faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways

increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Timbillica has a high bushfire risk due to its location near bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

60/100

Timbillica is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

20/100

Timbillica is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this inland suburb.

Key drivers:

·Inland location

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Timbillica

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Timbillica is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Timbillica faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways
·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Timbillica is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this inland suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Timbillica has a high bushfire risk due to its location near bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Drier conditions
·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and flooding.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Timbillica Creek
Elevation Range: 300-350m
Flood Zone: Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires significantly impacted the region, with widespread damage to property and the environment.

Source

2016

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting transportation and damaging infrastructure.

Source

2013

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and placed strain on local resources.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.0(+0.5)
bushfire	80	8.4(+0.4)	8.7(+0.7)
heat	60	6.6(+0.6)	7.0(+1.0)
coastal	20	2.0	2.0

By 2030, Timbillica is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of bushfires due to drier conditions. Flood risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve building standards for bushfire resistance

Immediate

Implement stricter building codes to ensure new and existing buildings are better protected from bushfires.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance flood management infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in drainage improvements and flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding in low-lying areas.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote community awareness and preparedness

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and provide resources to help them prepare for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Timbillica's Climate Risk Profile

Timbillica, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to bushland makes it highly susceptible to bushfires, which are projected to become more frequent and intense due to drier conditions and higher temperatures.

Flooding is another significant concern, with increased rainfall intensity expected to worsen flood risks in low-lying areas. Heatwaves are also becoming more common, posing health risks to residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

While Timbillica is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader regional impacts of climate change can still affect the community. It is crucial for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to adapt to these changing conditions.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential to slow down the pace of climate change, while local adaptation measures can help protect the community from the immediate impacts of extreme weather events. These measures include improving building standards, enhancing emergency response capabilities, and promoting community awareness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Bega Valley Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Timbillica?

The main climate change risks in Timbillica are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, installing fire-resistant building materials, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the Bega Valley Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Bega Valley Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Visit their website for more information.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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