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Climate Risk in Tomago, NSW

Tomago, New South Wales· Port Stephens· 2322
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Tomago faces a medium overall climate risk. The primary risks are from heatwaves and flooding, with increasing trends expected due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tomago

increasing

Flood

60/100

Tomago faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Hunter River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Tomago has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Tomago is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Tomago faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could impact low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tomago

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Tomago is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Tomago faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Hunter River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Tomago faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could impact low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Tomago has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurers are likely to increase premiums in response to increased flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a bushfire survival plan.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency measures to mitigate heat impacts.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hunter River
Elevation Range
2-10m
Flood Zone
Yes

Areas near the Hunter River are prone to inundation during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of Tomago border bushfire-prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Tomago experiences several days above 35°C each summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2007
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Hunter River, impacting low-lying areas of Tomago.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties in the outskirts of Tomago.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage in Tomago.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted Tomago, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Tomago is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and flooding posing the greatest challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and support residents in preparing their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Near-term

Create a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Management Strategy

Long-term

Develop a long-term coastal management strategy to address the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Tomago's Climate Risk Profile

Tomago, located in the Hunter region of New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The suburb's proximity to the Hunter River increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to exacerbate this risk, with more intense rainfall events expected in the future.

Bushfire risk is also a concern for Tomago, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions, driven by climate change, are likely to increase the frequency and severity of bushfires in the region. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and maintain their properties accordingly.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of Tomago residents, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. The number of heat stress events per year is projected to increase, placing additional strain on the community and local infrastructure.

Sea level rise and storm surges also present a risk to Tomago, particularly in low-lying coastal areas. While the immediate impact may be less pronounced compared to other hazards, the long-term effects of coastal erosion and inundation could be significant. Planning for adaptation measures is crucial to mitigate these risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Port Stephens Council

Local Government Resources

Port Stephens Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Tomago?

Tomago faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Flooding is a particular concern due to the suburb's proximity to the Hunter River.

How is climate change expected to impact Tomago?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and bushfires, impacting Tomago.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change?

Residents can prepare by developing emergency plans, maintaining their properties, and staying informed about climate risks and adaptation measures.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

Port Stephens Council has a climate strategy in place to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. They are also working on flood mitigation and bushfire preparedness measures.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Tomago?

You can find more information on the Port Stephens Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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