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Climate Risk in Tomerong, New South Wales

Tomerong, New South Wales· Shoalhaven· 2540
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Tomerong, NSW, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from bushfires and floods. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tomerong

increasing

Flood

65/100

Tomerong faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Tomerong has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

45/100

Tomerong experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Tomerong faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise and storm surges. This could impact low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tomerong

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

45/100

Tomerong experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Tomerong faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Tomerong faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise and storm surges. This could impact low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Tomerong has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making investment decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tomerong Creek
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Tomerong Creek

Historical flood data indicates that Tomerong Creek has overflowed during periods of heavy rainfall, impacting nearby properties.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Morton National Park
Planning Overlay
NSW Rural Fire Service Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near the coast may be vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Minimal erosion risk inland.

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireMajor

The Currowan bushfire impacted the region, causing significant property damage and environmental harm.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused Tomerong Creek to flood, affecting low-lying areas and disrupting traffic.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Tomerong prompted evacuations and threatened properties.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to intense rainfall, causing minor disruptions.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.7(+0.2)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)8.5(+1.5)
heat454.6(+0.1)5.0(+0.5)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.6(+0.6)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Tomerong is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with bushfire risk increasing more significantly than other hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement property-level bushfire protection measures, such as clearing vegetation and installing fire-resistant materials.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Flood Resilience

Near-term

Elevate homes in flood-prone areas and improve drainage infrastructure to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Near-term

Establish a community heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Tomerong's Climate Risk Profile

Tomerong, located in the Shoalhaven region of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

The area's proximity to bushland makes it highly susceptible to bushfires, with drier conditions and higher temperatures increasing the likelihood of severe fire events. Flooding is also a concern, particularly in low-lying areas near waterways, as rainfall intensity is projected to increase.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. Sea level rise and storm surges could impact coastal areas, leading to erosion and inundation.

Addressing these challenges requires proactive adaptation measures, including improved bushfire management, enhanced flood defenses, and strategies to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves. Community awareness and preparedness are also crucial for building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW State Emergency Service · Shoalhaven City Council

Local Government Resources

Shoalhaven City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Tomerong?

The main climate change risks in Tomerong include bushfires, flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation, installing fire-resistant materials, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, you should move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activities.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Tomerong?

You can find more information about climate change in Tomerong on the Shoalhaven City Council website and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

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