Climate Risk Profile: Toms Creek, NSW

Toms Creek, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Toms Creek faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for residents and property owners. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

N/A

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Toms Creek

increasing

Flood

60/100

Toms Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area surrounding Toms Creek has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions, exacerbated by climate change, are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Decreased rainfall

increasing

Heat

40/100

Toms Creek is expected to experience an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

0/100

Toms Creek is not located near the coast and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Toms Creek

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Toms Creek is expected to experience an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

flood Risk

60/100

Toms Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

coastal Risk

0/100

Toms Creek is not located near the coast and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

0.0

2050

0.0

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area surrounding Toms Creek has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions, exacerbated by climate change, are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Decreased rainfall
·Dry vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage details.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks and potential impacts on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Toms Creek
Elevation Range: 50-100m
Flood Zone: Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: None
Erosion Risk: None

Historical Climate Events

2013

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused Toms Creek to flood, affecting several homes and businesses.

2019

bushfireMajor

A large bushfire burned through the surrounding area, threatening homes in Toms Creek.

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

2022

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting Toms Creek and surrounding areas.

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.4(+0.4)	7.8(+0.8)
heat	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.6(+0.6)
coastal	0	0.0	0.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Toms Creek is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and bushfire risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: High

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Establish a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

About Toms Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Toms Creek, located in New South Wales, is an area that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks are associated with flooding and bushfires, both of which are projected to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and severe flood events, impacting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Effective flood management strategies are crucial to mitigate these risks.

Bushfire risk is also high, given the presence of dense vegetation in the surrounding areas. Hotter and drier conditions, exacerbated by climate change, create a more conducive environment for bushfires. Residents need to be prepared and take necessary precautions to protect their properties.

Heatwaves are another growing concern. As temperatures rise, the number of hot days and heatwaves is expected to increase, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Access to cooling and adequate hydration will be essential during these events.

While Toms Creek does not face direct coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Toms Creek?

The main climate risks facing Toms Creek are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Toms Creek?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced. It is important to assess the property's vulnerability to climate risks before purchasing.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

There are several measures you can take to protect your home from flooding, such as installing flood barriers, elevating appliances, and improving drainage.

How can I prepare for a bushfire?

You can prepare for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your home, creating a fire break, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Toms Creek?

You can find more information about climate change in Toms Creek from the local council, the NSW government, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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30-120%

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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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