Is Tongarra, NSW Climate Safe? 2026 Assessment

Tongarra, New South Wales· Shellharbour
Moderate climate risk — address-specificUpdated 31 May 2026

Climate Safety Score

5.2/10

Moderate climate risk — address-specific

Key Facts

Climate Safety
Medium
Flood
Tongarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Bushfire
The risk of bushfire in Tongarra is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase bushfire frequency and intensity.
Heat
Tongarra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Storm
Moderate storm risk — East Coast Lows bring severe weather including hail and damaging winds
Postcode
2527
Highest high-risk exposure
12.9% of land (bushfire)

Climate Safety Analysis

Tongarra in New South Wales has an overall climate safety rating of Medium. This multi-hazard assessment combines flood, bushfire, heat, coastal, and storm risk data with climate projections to 2050 from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Key factors affecting Tongarra's climate safety include heat, flood. Each hazard is assessed independently and combined for an overall picture. Australia has warmed by approximately 1.5 °C since 1910, with flow-on effects to fire weather, extreme rainfall, and heatwave frequency.

Climate safety for property in Tongarra is not uniform — it varies by address. Factors such as elevation, distance to waterways, proximity to bushland, and local drainage all influence actual risk at a specific property. Two nearby properties can have materially different risk profiles.

For a complete property-specific climate safety report for Tongarra including address-level hazard mapping, insurance outlook, and adaptation recommendations, use the ClimateNest full analysis tool.

Tongarra (postcode 2527) is tracked in ClimateNest's suburb hazard model, which maps the share of the suburb's land exposed to each hazard at high and moderate levels. The suburb's highest high-risk exposures are bushfire (12.9% of land in high-risk zones), surface flood (7.8% of land in high-risk zones), riverine flood (6.5% of land in high-risk zones). Exposure is not uniform across Tongarra — individual properties can sit well above or below these averages, so an address-level check is recommended before buying, selling or insuring.

Local Hazard Evidence

Distance to BushlandAdjacent to bushland reserves
BAL OverlayRFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Nearest WaterwayLake Illawarra
Flood ZonePartially within flood zone
Avg January Max27.5 °C

Historical Events

2020
Moderate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents.

2017
Moderate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage.

2013
Moderate

Bushfires in the region threatened properties and caused evacuations.

2011
Moderate

Major flooding in the Illawarra region caused widespread damage and disruption.

Adaptation & Mitigation Actions

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Improve bushfire management

Near-term

Implement strategies to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Develop heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal properties from erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Council & Emergency Services

Shellharbour City Council
Emergency Services

Data last updated: 31 May 2026

Explore Tongarra Risk Reports

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tongarra safe from climate change?

No location in Australia is entirely immune to climate change impacts. Tongarra has an overall Medium climate risk rating. Understanding the specific hazards at your property address — not just the suburb average — provides the most reliable risk picture.

Which climate hazard poses the biggest risk in Tongarra?

The dominant hazard for Tongarra depends on geography and local environment. Proximity to waterways elevates flood risk, while proximity to bushland increases bushfire risk. ClimateNest's multi-hazard analysis identifies the highest-risk hazards for any specific address.

How does Tongarra compare to nearby suburbs for climate safety?

Nearby suburbs may have different climate risk profiles depending on elevation, vegetation cover, drainage patterns, and land use. ClimateNest allows comparison of climate safety scores across New South Wales suburbs.

Should I be concerned about buying property in Tongarra?

Climate risk should be one factor in your decision, alongside price, location, and amenity. An informed buyer understands the specific risks at a property address and factors insurance costs and climate projections into their assessment of long-term value.

What climate projections should I know for Tongarra?

Key projections for New South Wales from CSIRO include increased average temperatures, more frequent hot days, changes in rainfall seasonality, longer fire seasons, and potential increases in extreme rainfall intensity. These trends inform the long-term outlook for Tongarra.

What share of Tongarra is exposed to high bushfire risk?

ClimateNest's hazard overlay maps 12.9% of Tongarra in high-risk zones for bushfire, with a further 63.3% in moderate-risk zones. Suburb-level exposure is not uniform — individual properties can differ from these averages, so an address-level check is recommended.

Is Tongarra Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Tongarra, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections