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Climate Risk Assessment for Toonumbar, NSW

Toonumbar, New South Wales· 2470
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Toonumbar faces significant risks from flooding and bushfires, which are expected to worsen with climate change. Heatwaves also pose a growing threat. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
6.5
Coastal
2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Toonumbar

increasing

Flood

85/100

Toonumbar faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Toonumbar is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

65/100

Toonumbar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

20/100

Toonumbar is not directly exposed to coastal risks, but changes in weather patterns could indirectly affect the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Lack of direct coastal exposure
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Toonumbar

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

65/100

Toonumbar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minimal)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.2

Data source

flood Risk

85/100

Toonumbar faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Toonumbar is not directly exposed to coastal risks, but changes in weather patterns could indirectly affect the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Lack of direct coastal exposure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Toonumbar is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage limitations.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Richmond River
Elevation Range
100-150m
Flood Zone
Likely

Historical flood data indicates regular inundation of low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly during the summer months.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Richmond River catchment, impacting Toonumbar and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Toonumbar.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood858.8(+0.3)9.2(+0.7)
bushfire707.2(+0.2)7.4(+0.4)
heat656.6(+0.1)6.8(+0.3)
coastal202.02.0

By 2030, Toonumbar is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and bushfire risks. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, improved drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, including fuel reduction programs, community education, and improved fire response capabilities.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Emergency Response

Near-term

Improve emergency response capabilities to effectively manage climate-related disasters, including enhanced communication systems and evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Toonumbar's Climate Risk Profile

Toonumbar, located in northern New South Wales, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially increased flooding and bushfire risks. The region's proximity to waterways makes it susceptible to riverine flooding, which is projected to become more frequent and intense due to increased rainfall intensity.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern for Toonumbar. The surrounding landscape and drier conditions contribute to a high fire risk, which is expected to worsen with rising temperatures and prolonged droughts. Residents should maintain awareness of fire danger ratings and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are another growing threat, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated and seek cooler environments during periods of extreme heat.

While Toonumbar is not directly exposed to coastal risks, changes in weather patterns and increased storm intensity could indirectly affect the region. Preparing for more extreme weather events is crucial for the community's resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · RFS NSW · NSW Government

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Toonumbar?

The main climate change risks for Toonumbar are increased flooding, bushfire risk, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Toonumbar?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood and bushfire risks.

What can I do to prepare for increased flood risk?

You can prepare by checking flood maps, assessing your property's vulnerability, obtaining insurance, and reviewing council's climate adaptation plans.

What steps are being taken to address climate change in Toonumbar?

The local council is working on climate adaptation plans and implementing strategies to mitigate flood and bushfire risks. However, specific details are unavailable.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Toonumbar?

You can find more information about climate change projections on the CSIRO website and the NSW government's climate change website.

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