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Climate Risk Profile: Tullamore, NSW

Tullamore, New South Wales· Parkes· 2874
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Tullamore is a rural town in NSW facing increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tullamore

increasing

Flood

65/100

Tullamore faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Tullamore is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a threat during dry periods. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Tullamore experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Tullamore is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tullamore

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Tullamore experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (limited)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Tullamore faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Tullamore is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Tullamore is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a threat during dry periods. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades for cooling.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tullamore Creek
Elevation Range
250-270m
Flood Zone
Areas near Tullamore Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the creek. Council is working on drainage improvements.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by grasslands and scattered bushland.
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for current bushfire prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Ensure adequate hydration and access to cooling during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
400 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Tullamore, impacting some residential properties.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for electricity and put stress on vulnerable residents.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Prolonged drought conditions impacted agricultural production and water availability in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Tullamore is projected to experience a noticeable increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, as well as a higher risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement and maintain bushfire protection measures, including clearing vegetation around properties and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation Measures

Long-term

Promote water conservation practices to address potential water scarcity issues during prolonged droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tullamore's Climate Risk Profile

Tullamore, located in the central west region of New South Wales, is a community that will likely experience the effects of climate change in the coming decades. The primary concerns for Tullamore are increased flooding risk due to more intense rainfall events, and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is driven by the local topography and the potential for heavy rainfall events to overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure. Climate projections suggest that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to a higher likelihood of flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Tullamore. As average temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Tullamore is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to agricultural production and supply chains, could indirectly affect the community. Residents should take proactive steps to prepare for these challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Parkes Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Tullamore?

The main risks are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for flooding?

Ensure your property has adequate drainage, elevate valuable items, and consider flood-proofing measures.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, have a bushfire survival plan, and monitor fire danger ratings.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Tullamore?

Consult the Parkes Shire Council website, the NSW Government's climate change resources, and the CSIRO's climate projections.

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