Climate Risk in Tullimbar, NSW

Tullimbar, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Tullimbar faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are key drivers of these risks. Coastal risks are low due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tullimbar

increasing

Flood

60/100

Tullimbar faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Development and changing rainfall patterns are contributing factors.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Tullimbar has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Drier conditions and increased temperatures are exacerbating the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

40/100

Tullimbar experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Tullimbar has a low coastal risk due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tullimbar

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Tullimbar experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Tullimbar faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Development and changing rainfall patterns are contributing factors.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Tullimbar has a low coastal risk due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Tullimbar has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Drier conditions and increased temperatures are exacerbating the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Accumulation of dry vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider energy efficiency measures to reduce heat stress.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Mullet Creek
Elevation Range: 20-40 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near Mullet Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of the region, impacting some properties in Tullimbar.

Source

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding areas threatened Tullimbar, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Tullimbar is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher flood, bushfire, and heat risks. Rainfall intensity and temperatures are expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement bushfire management plans to reduce the risk of bushfires spreading to residential areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Energy Efficiency

Long-term

Encourage energy efficiency measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plans

Near-term

Create heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwave events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tullimbar's Climate Risk Profile

Tullimbar, located in New South Wales, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding and bushfires, which are expected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change. The suburb's proximity to bushland and waterways makes it particularly vulnerable.

Flooding is a significant concern, with heavy rainfall events posing a threat to properties and infrastructure. Urban development and inadequate drainage systems exacerbate this risk. Bushfires are also a major threat, especially during the dry summer months. Increased temperatures and drier conditions contribute to the spread of bushfires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. While coastal risks are low due to Tullimbar's inland location, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from coastal erosion and sea level rise.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation measures aim to build resilience to the impacts of climate change. These include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and promoting energy efficiency.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Shellharbour City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Tullimbar?

The main climate risks in Tullimbar are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change.

How is the council addressing climate change in Tullimbar?

Shellharbour City Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, developing bushfire management plans, and promoting energy efficiency.

What can residents do to prepare for climate risks?

Residents can prepare for climate risks by checking flood maps and bushfire prone area designations, assessing their property's vulnerability, inquiring about insurance costs, and considering energy efficiency measures.

Are there any government grants available for climate adaptation measures?

Yes, there are various government grants available for climate adaptation measures, such as installing rainwater tanks, improving insulation, and implementing bushfire protection measures. Check the relevant government websites for more information.

How will climate change affect property values in Tullimbar?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased flood and bushfire risks. However, properties with climate adaptation measures may maintain their value.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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