Climate Risk in Upper Burringbar, NSW

Upper Burringbar, New South Wales· Tweed Shire· 2483
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Burringbar faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. While not directly coastal, the suburb could be indirectly affected by coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.0
Coastal
3.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Burringbar

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Burringbar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

48/100

The area around Upper Burringbar has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Upper Burringbar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

30/100

Upper Burringbar is not directly on the coast, so the coastal risk is relatively low. However, sea level rise and storm surges could indirectly impact the area.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Burringbar

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Upper Burringbar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.2

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Burringbar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

30/100

Upper Burringbar is not directly on the coast, so the coastal risk is relatively low. However, sea level rise and storm surges could indirectly impact the area.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.3

2050

3.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

48/100

The area around Upper Burringbar has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.2

2050

5.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Burringbar Creek
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Historical flood data indicates that Upper Burringbar has experienced several moderate flood events in the past. Recent infrastructure upgrades aim to improve drainage capacity.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building codes and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase significantly by 2050.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2017
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Tweed River catchment, impacting Upper Burringbar with road closures and property damage.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and required residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Record-breaking rainfall led to widespread flooding across the Northern Rivers region, including Upper Burringbar, causing significant damage and displacement.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire485.2(+0.4)5.6(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.1(+1.1)
coastal303.2(+0.2)3.4(+0.4)

By 2030, Upper Burringbar is projected to experience a noticeable increase in overall climate risk, with more frequent and intense floods, bushfires, and heatwaves. Coastal risks remain relatively low but are still expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs, create firebreaks, and educate residents on bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a community heatwave plan that includes cooling centers, public awareness campaigns, and support for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to require more resilient construction materials and designs that can withstand extreme weather events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Conduct workshops and seminars to educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Upper Burringbar's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Burringbar, located in the Tweed Shire of New South Wales, is a rural community that faces a range of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are increasing flood risk due to more intense rainfall, heightened bushfire danger from hotter and drier conditions, and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The suburb's proximity to waterways makes it vulnerable to flooding, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm drainage systems and cause significant damage to property and infrastructure. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.

The surrounding bushland also poses a bushfire threat, particularly during the dry season. Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall are creating conditions that are more conducive to bushfires. Property owners should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more common and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool places, and check on elderly or ill neighbors during periods of extreme heat.

While Upper Burringbar is not directly on the coast, sea level rise and storm surges could have indirect impacts, such as disrupting transportation and supply chains. The community needs to work together to adapt to these challenges and build resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Tweed Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Upper Burringbar?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more severe heatwaves. Sea level rise could also have indirect impacts.

How is the Tweed Shire Council addressing climate change?

The council has developed a climate strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. They are also working to improve drainage infrastructure and manage bushfire risk.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Upper Burringbar?

Stay informed about flood warnings, develop an evacuation plan, and ensure your property is adequately insured. Consider installing flood-proofing measures.

How can I protect my home from bushfires?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation and removing flammable materials. Install fire-resistant building materials and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool places, and check on elderly or ill neighbors. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Upper Burringbar?

You can find information on the Tweed Shire Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections