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Climate Risk in Upper Duroby, New South Wales

Upper Duroby, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Duroby faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future, particularly increasing the intensity of heatwaves and flooding events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Duroby

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Duroby faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Upper Duroby has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Upper Duroby is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upper Duroby is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Duroby

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Upper Duroby is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Duroby faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upper Duroby is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Upper Duroby has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential for moderate price impact due to increased risk awareness.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property protection measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tweed River
Elevation Range
50-100m
Flood Zone
Low to moderate risk areas identified

Historical flood data indicates past events impacting low-lying areas near the Tweed River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to significant bushland areas
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk during bushfire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2017
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas along the Tweed River.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable populations.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding event impacted numerous properties and infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat505.8(+0.8)6.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Upper Duroby is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-saving practices to reduce the impact of droughts and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Upper Duroby's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Duroby, located in New South Wales, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns for the suburb are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Its geographical location makes it susceptible to increased rainfall intensity, leading to potential flood events. The surrounding bushland also poses a moderate bushfire risk, especially during the dry season.

Climate change projections indicate that Upper Duroby will likely experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will place additional stress on the community, particularly vulnerable populations. The risk of flooding is also expected to increase due to more intense rainfall events. While the suburb is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader regional impacts of climate change could indirectly affect the community.

Understanding these risks is crucial for residents and property owners in Upper Duroby. Taking proactive measures to adapt to these changes can help mitigate potential impacts. This includes preparing for heatwaves, maintaining properties to reduce bushfire risk, and understanding local flood risks.

Local authorities and emergency services play a vital role in managing these risks. Residents should stay informed about local emergency plans and be prepared to respond to potential climate-related events. By working together, the community can build resilience and adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Upper Duroby?

The main climate risks in Upper Duroby are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Upper Duroby?

You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, having an emergency plan, and ensuring your property is adequately insured.

What should I do during a heatwave in Upper Duroby?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Upper Duroby?

You can protect your property by clearing vegetation around your home, having a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Upper Duroby?

You can find more information from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), CSIRO, and the New South Wales government websites.

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