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Climate Risk Profile: Upper Orara, NSW

Upper Orara, New South Wales· 2450
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Orara faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. The suburb's inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Orara

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Orara faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and rainfall patterns. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to Orara River
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Upper Orara has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

45/100

Upper Orara experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upper Orara is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Inland location
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Orara

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

45/100

Upper Orara experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Orara faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and rainfall patterns. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to Orara River
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upper Orara is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Upper Orara has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate change projections.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Orara River
Elevation Range
100-200m
Flood Zone
Moderate

The Orara River can experience rapid rises in water levels during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is surrounded by eucalyptus forests, which are highly flammable.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant risk to elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Orara Valley, impacting Upper Orara and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires impacted the region, with smoke and ember attacks affecting Upper Orara.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Upper Orara.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Upper Orara, with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)7.0(+0.5)7.4(+0.9)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.7(+0.7)7.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)
heat454.6(+0.1)4.8(+0.3)4.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Upper Orara is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and bushfire risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to mitigate flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs and create firebreaks to reduce bushfire hazards.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide public awareness campaigns on heatwave safety.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Upper Orara's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Orara, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to the Orara River, bushfires due to the surrounding bushland, and increasing heatwaves.

Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to a higher risk of flooding. The drier conditions and higher temperatures will also exacerbate the bushfire risk. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to vulnerable populations.

While Upper Orara is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Residents and property owners should take proactive measures to mitigate these risks, including preparing for extreme weather events, maintaining their properties to reduce bushfire hazards, and staying informed about climate change projections and adaptation strategies. Local authorities are also working to develop and implement climate resilience plans to protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Coffs Harbour City Council

Local Government Resources

Coffs Harbour City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Upper Orara?

The main climate change risks in Upper Orara are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Upper Orara?

Climate change may negatively affect property values in Upper Orara due to increased risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a greater impact.

What can I do to protect my property from bushfires?

To protect your property from bushfires, you should maintain your property by clearing vegetation, creating firebreaks, and ensuring you have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Upper Orara?

You can find information about flood risks in Upper Orara on the Coffs Harbour City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

How can I prepare for a heatwave in Upper Orara?

To prepare for a heatwave, stay hydrated, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is Upper Orara likely to experience more droughts in the future?

Climate projections suggest that the region may experience more prolonged periods of drought in the future, which could exacerbate bushfire risks and impact water resources.

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