Climate Risk Profile: Upper Rouchel, NSW

Upper Rouchel, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Rouchel faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the severity and frequency of these events, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Rouchel

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Rouchel faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Upper Rouchel is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of surrounding bushland increases the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

50/100

Upper Rouchel experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upper Rouchel is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Rouchel

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Upper Rouchel experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Rouchel faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upper Rouchel is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Upper Rouchel is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of surrounding bushland increases the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in areas prone to flooding or bushfires may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage limitations.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Rouchel Brook
Elevation Range
150-200m
Flood Zone
Areas near Rouchel Brook are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that the area has experienced several moderate to major flood events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to large areas of bushland.
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new developments.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Hunter Valley region, impacting Upper Rouchel.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Upper Rouchel, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Severe drought conditions affected the region, impacting agriculture and water resources.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Upper Rouchel is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, as well as a higher risk of bushfires due to drier conditions. Flooding risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Management

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs and improve building standards to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan and provide cooling centers for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to address drought conditions and ensure water security.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Upper Rouchel's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Rouchel, located in New South Wales, is an inland suburb that experiences a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to surrounding bushland, and heatwaves during the summer months.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for riverine flooding during periods of intense rainfall. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating this risk. Bushfires pose a threat, particularly during dry periods when vegetation becomes highly flammable. Higher temperatures and drier conditions contribute to the increased risk of bushfires.

Heatwaves are another concern, with temperatures expected to rise further due to climate change. This can lead to heat stress and other health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations. While Upper Rouchel is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, will still be felt.

Adaptation measures are essential to mitigate these risks and protect the community. These include improving flood defenses, managing vegetation to reduce bushfire risk, and implementing strategies to reduce the impacts of heatwaves. Proactive planning and community engagement are crucial to building resilience to climate change in Upper Rouchel.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Mid-Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Upper Rouchel?

Upper Rouchel faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Upper Rouchel?

Properties in areas prone to flooding or bushfires may experience a decrease in value due to increased risks.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Upper Rouchel?

Mid-Coast Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to mitigate risks and build resilience in the community.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can take steps to reduce their vulnerability to flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, such as improving home defenses and conserving water.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Upper Rouchel?

Climate change projections for the region are available from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections