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ClimateNest

Climate Risk in Utungun, NSW

Utungun, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Utungun faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should take steps to prepare for these impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
4.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Utungun

increasing

Flood

65/100

Utungun faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Utungun has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Utungun is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

40/100

Utungun has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying coastal areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Utungun

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Utungun is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Utungun faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

40/100

Utungun has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying coastal areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Utungun has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
5-15m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Local creeks and drainage systems may be overwhelmed during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring adherence to building codes and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant health risk, especially for vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Utungun.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger in Utungun.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A severe thunderstorm brought heavy rain and strong winds to Utungun, causing minor damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)

By 2030, Utungun is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Vegetation Management

Near-term

Implement vegetation management strategies to reduce bushfire fuel load and protect properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness of climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Utungun's Climate Risk Profile

Utungun is a suburb in New South Wales that is exposed to a range of climate risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. The risk of flooding is moderate due to the suburb's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

The risk of bushfires is also moderate due to the surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying coastal areas. It is important for residents to be aware of these risks and take steps to prepare for them. This includes having an emergency plan, packing a go-bag, and staying informed about weather warnings.

Adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and implementing heatwave early warning systems, can help to reduce the impacts of climate change in Utungun. Individual actions, such as conserving water, reducing energy consumption, and planting trees, can also make a difference.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Utungun?

The main climate risks in Utungun are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Sea level rise also poses a threat, though less immediate.

How is climate change expected to impact Utungun?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, bushfires, and heatwaves. This could lead to increased damage to property, health impacts, and disruption to services.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Utungun?

There are several things you can do to prepare for climate change, including developing an emergency plan, packing a go-bag, staying informed about weather warnings, and taking steps to reduce your carbon footprint.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Utungun?

MidCoast Council is developing and implementing a range of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and promoting energy efficiency.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Utungun?

You can find more information about climate change in Utungun on the MidCoast Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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