Climate Risk Profile: Warragamba, NSW

Warragamba, New South Wales· Wollondilly· 2752
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Warragamba faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures also contribute to heat-related risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warragamba

increasing

Flood

70/100

Warragamba faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Warragamba Dam and the Warragamba River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure in low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Dam overflow
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Warragamba is characterized by significant bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The risk is exacerbated by climate change, leading to longer fire seasons and more intense fires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Warragamba experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with the risk of heatwaves increasing due to climate change. This can pose health risks to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Warragamba is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warragamba

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Warragamba experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with the risk of heatwaves increasing due to climate change. This can pose health risks to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Warragamba faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Warragamba Dam and the Warragamba River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure in low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Dam overflow
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Warragamba is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Warragamba is characterized by significant bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The risk is exacerbated by climate change, leading to longer fire seasons and more intense fires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may be higher due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Warragamba River
Elevation Range
Varies, low-lying areas near the river are most vulnerable
Flood Zone
Areas near the Warragamba River are designated flood zones.

The Warragamba Dam plays a crucial role in managing flood risks, but heavy rainfall can still lead to significant flooding events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Immediately adjacent to significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW Rural Fire Service for bushfire prone area mapping.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is prone to bushfires due to the extensive surrounding bushland and dry conditions during summer.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Warragamba experiences hot summers, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 40°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Warragamba River, affecting low-lying properties.

Source
2001
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties in the surrounding areas, requiring extensive firefighting efforts.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Warragamba River to flood, impacting local infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The Green Wattle Creek fire severely impacted the region surrounding Warragamba, causing widespread damage and evacuations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
heat505.7(+0.7)6.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Warragamba is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement regular vegetation clearing and community education programs to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community workshops and awareness campaigns to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Warragamba's Climate Risk Profile

Warragamba, located in New South Wales, is exposed to several climate-related risks that are expected to intensify in the coming decades. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to the Warragamba Dam and bushfires due to the surrounding bushland. Rising temperatures also pose a threat, increasing the risk of heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is significant, with potential for increased rainfall intensity and dam overflows. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable. Bushfire risk is also high, especially during dry periods, with the potential for fires to spread rapidly through the surrounding vegetation.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. The local council and emergency services are working to mitigate these risks through various strategies, including improved infrastructure and community awareness programs.

Residents should stay informed about weather forecasts and emergency warnings, and take steps to prepare their homes and families for extreme weather events. This includes having an emergency plan, clearing vegetation around properties, and ensuring adequate insurance coverage.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · Wollondilly Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Warragamba?

The main climate risks in Warragamba are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property for flooding by clearing drainage systems, raising electrical appliances, and having an emergency plan in place.

What should I do during a bushfire?

During a bushfire, follow the advice of emergency services. If you are in a high-risk area, evacuate early. If you are staying, protect your home by wetting down the exterior and clearing vegetation.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Warragamba?

You can find more information about climate risks in Warragamba on the Wollondilly Shire Council website, the NSW State Emergency Service website, and the NSW Rural Fire Service website.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Warragamba, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Warragamba's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections