ClimateNest
ClimateNest

Climate Risk in Warrell Creek, NSW

Warrell Creek, New South Wales· 2447
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Warrell Creek faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and consider long-term adaptation strategies.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
6.8
Coastal
5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warrell Creek

increasing

Flood

65/100

Warrell Creek is located near waterways and low-lying areas, making it susceptible to flooding. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The area around Warrell Creek has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

68/100

Warrell Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

55/100

Located near the coast, Warrell Creek faces potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors could affect infrastructure and property values.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warrell Creek

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

68/100

Warrell Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Warrell Creek is located near waterways and low-lying areas, making it susceptible to flooding. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Poor drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Located near the coast, Warrell Creek faces potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors could affect infrastructure and property values.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The area around Warrell Creek has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price decreases.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider long-term climate risks when buying.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Warrell Creek
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Likely

The area has a history of flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check local RFS maps for detailed bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Macleay Valley, impacting Warrell Creek.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region, causing widespread damage.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.6(+0.4)
heat687.5(+0.7)8.3(+1.5)
coastal555.9(+0.4)6.3(+0.8)

By 2030, Warrell Creek is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and coastal risks are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Create and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan for the community.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Warrell Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Warrell Creek, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to surrounding vegetation, and heatwaves that are projected to become more frequent and intense.

The area's low-lying topography and coastal location make it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and infrastructure.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, as the surrounding bushland provides fuel for potential fires. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires, posing a threat to homes and businesses.

Heatwaves are another significant risk, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves could strain local resources and infrastructure.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts should focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation strategies should focus on preparing for the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and developing heatwave response plans.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · Kempsey Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Kempsey Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Warrell Creek?

The main risks include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

How will climate change affect property values in Warrell Creek?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price decreases due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Warrell Creek?

Stay hydrated, stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Kempsey Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Warrell Creek?

You can find flood maps and information on the Kempsey Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Warrell Creek?

Clear vegetation around your home, have a bushfire survival plan, and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Warrell Creek, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Warrell Creek →

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Warrell Creek's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data
Get Your flood Risk Report — A$69

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections