Climate Risk Assessment for Winburndale, NSW

Winburndale, New South Wales· Bathurst Regional
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Winburndale faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. The suburb's location and surrounding environment make it vulnerable to these hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Winburndale

increasing

Flood

65/100

Winburndale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and undulating terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area surrounding Winburndale is bushfire-prone, with a high risk during dry seasons. Grasslands and nearby forests contribute to the fire hazard.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

40/100

Winburndale experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures during summer. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Winburndale is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Winburndale

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Winburndale experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures during summer. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Winburndale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and undulating terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Winburndale is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area surrounding Winburndale is bushfire-prone, with a high risk during dry seasons. Grasslands and nearby forests contribute to the fire hazard.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Winburndale Rivulet
Elevation Range
700-800m
Flood Zone
Moderate

Historical flood data indicates several inundation events in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is classified as bushfire prone due to the presence of native vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January have been increasing over the past decade.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Winburndale Rivulet to flood, impacting several properties.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

A large bushfire burned through nearby bushland, threatening properties in Winburndale.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.3(+0.3)7.8(+0.8)
heat404.7(+0.7)5.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Winburndale is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers to protect properties from inundation.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Create and maintain firebreaks around properties, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a community heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation Measures

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Winburndale's Climate Risk Profile

Winburndale, located in the Bathurst region of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, all of which are projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways and its undulating terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, impacting homes and infrastructure. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these rainfall events, exacerbating the flood risk.

Bushfires pose another major threat, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding grasslands and forests provide ample fuel for fires, and hotter, drier conditions are increasing the likelihood of severe bushfire seasons. Residents need to be prepared for potential evacuations and property damage.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. Rising average temperatures and prolonged periods of extreme heat can strain infrastructure and increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.

While Winburndale is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, can still affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Bathurst Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Winburndale?

Winburndale faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. These hazards are projected to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property by creating and maintaining firebreaks, clearing gutters of debris, and having a bushfire survival plan in place. The NSW Rural Fire Service provides resources and guidance on bushfire preparedness.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it's important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the Bathurst Regional Council website, including flood maps and emergency management plans.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

Bathurst Regional Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Details can be found on their website.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections