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Climate Risk Profile: Woronora Dam, NSW

Woronora Dam, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Woronora Dam faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires due to its location and climate change impacts. Heat risk is also present and projected to increase. Coastal risks are minimal.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Woronora Dam

increasing

Flood

65/100

Woronora Dam faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Woronora River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to increased water levels and potential inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Woronora Dam has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires spreading rapidly.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

40/100

Woronora Dam experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Woronora Dam has a low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Woronora Dam

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Woronora Dam experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Woronora Dam faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Woronora River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to increased water levels and potential inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Woronora Dam has a low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Woronora Dam has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires spreading rapidly.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increased premiums possible due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider future climate change impacts on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Woronora River
Elevation Range
Varies, low-lying areas near the river
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near the river

Historical flood data indicates past inundation events in the region.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
RFS bushfire prone area map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has a history of bushfire activity.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Woronora Dam, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Woronora River, affecting low-lying areas near the dam.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted the region, leading to increased heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in areas surrounding the Woronora River due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.3(+0.3)7.5(+0.5)
heat404.7(+0.7)5.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Woronora Dam is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems and build flood barriers to protect low-lying areas from inundation.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire safety and assist residents in creating defensible spaces around their properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers and providing public health advice.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Sustainable Urban Planning

Long-term

Incorporate climate change considerations into urban planning decisions, including promoting green infrastructure and energy-efficient buildings.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Woronora Dam's Climate Risk Profile

Woronora Dam, located in New South Wales, is subject to several climate-related risks that are expected to intensify in the coming decades. The primary concerns are flooding and bushfire risks, driven by changing weather patterns and increased temperatures.

The suburb's proximity to the Woronora River makes it vulnerable to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of inundation in low-lying areas. Effective flood management strategies and infrastructure improvements are crucial to mitigate these risks.

Bushfire risk is also significant due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions, exacerbated by climate change, create an environment conducive to bushfires. Residents need to be prepared and aware of bushfire safety measures, including maintaining defensible spaces around their properties.

While coastal risks are low, the increasing average temperatures pose a threat to the community. Heatwave events are expected to become more frequent and intense, impacting vulnerable populations. Implementing heat mitigation strategies, such as increasing green spaces and improving building insulation, can help reduce the impact of heat on residents.

Overall, Woronora Dam needs to proactively address these climate risks to ensure the safety and well-being of its community. Adaptation measures, combined with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, are essential for building a more resilient future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Woronora Dam?

The main climate risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Create a defensible space around your property by removing flammable materials, trimming trees, and clearing gutters. Have a bushfire survival plan in place.

What should I do during a flood?

Stay informed about flood warnings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Move valuables to higher ground and avoid driving through floodwaters.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Woronora Dam?

Consult the CSIRO climate change projections, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, and local council resources for detailed information.

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