Climate Risk Profile: Yarragal, NSW

Yarragal, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Yarragal faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Yarragal

increasing

Flood

60/100

Yarragal faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Yarragal has a high bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Drier vegetation

increasing

Heat

40/100

Yarragal experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Yarragal is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Yarragal

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Yarragal experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Yarragal faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Yarragal is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

bushfire Risk

70/100

Yarragal has a high bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Drier vegetation
·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for future premium increases.
4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and rivers
Elevation Range: Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone: Areas near waterways are prone to flooding

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to significant bushland areas
Planning Overlay: Check NSW RFS website for current bushfire prone area maps
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted the region, causing property damage and disruptions to infrastructure.

Source

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened the outskirts of the suburb, requiring evacuations and property protection measures.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions and strain on emergency services.

Source

2020

bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage and loss of property.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.3(+0.3)	6.6(+0.6)
bushfire	70	7.4(+0.4)	7.8(+0.8)
heat	40	4.6(+0.6)	5.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Yarragal is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Bushfire risk will also rise due to drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage systems and flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and install fire-resistant building materials.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Install air conditioning or fans, stay hydrated, and avoid strenuous activity during heatwaves. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Implement community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to require more climate-resilient construction materials and designs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Yarragal's Climate Risk Profile

Yarragal is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to worsen these hazards.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm drainage systems and cause property damage. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the surrounding bushland, with hot, dry conditions creating ideal conditions for fires to spread rapidly.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate temperatures in built-up areas. Sea level rise is not a direct threat to Yarragal.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions, community initiatives, and government policies. Residents should take steps to protect their homes and prepare for extreme weather events. Local authorities need to invest in infrastructure improvements and implement strategies to mitigate climate risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Example Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Yarragal?

The main climate risks facing Yarragal are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a flood?

You can prepare your home for a flood by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and clearing gutters and downpipes.

What should I do during a bushfire?

During a bushfire, follow your bushfire survival plan, evacuate if necessary, and stay informed about the latest fire updates.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is implementing a climate strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Yarragal?

You can find more information about climate risks in Yarragal on the council website, the NSW SES website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Yarragal, use our analysis tool.

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30-120%

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