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Climate Risk Assessment: acoat's Lagoon, NT

acoat's Lagoon, Northern Territory
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

acoat's Lagoon faces moderate climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and flooding. Sea level rise and bushfire risks are also present. Residents should prepare for increasing temperatures and potential disruptions from extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for acoat's Lagoon

increasing

Flood

60/100

acoat's Lagoon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Low-lying topography
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in acoat's Lagoon is relatively low compared to other regions, but dry vegetation and seasonal winds can still pose a threat.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Seasonal winds
increasing

Heat

70/100

acoat's Lagoon is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

50/100

acoat's Lagoon may face some coastal risks due to sea level rise and storm surges, although the immediate impact may be less severe than in other coastal areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge intensity
increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for acoat's Lagoon

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

acoat's Lagoon is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

acoat's Lagoon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Low-lying topography
  • ·Proximity to waterways

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

acoat's Lagoon may face some coastal risks due to sea level rise and storm surges, although the immediate impact may be less severe than in other coastal areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in acoat's Lagoon is relatively low compared to other regions, but dry vegetation and seasonal winds can still pose a threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Seasonal winds
  • ·Climate change increasing fire weather

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood risk maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider heatwave resilience
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
5-15m
Flood Zone
Likely

Low-lying areas near the creek are most vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km
Planning Overlay
Check with NT Fire and Rescue Service
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas adjacent to bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Minimal

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking temperatures caused heat stress and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2020
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire occurred near the outskirts of the suburb.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Significant rainfall event led to flash flooding and road closures.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.6(+0.6)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.4(+0.4)

By 2030, acoat's Lagoon is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will see a slight increase, while coastal risks will remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and levees.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Near-term

Manage vegetation and implement firebreaks to reduce bushfire hazards.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Plan for Sea Level Rise

Long-term

Develop strategies to adapt to sea level rise, including coastal protection measures and land-use planning.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to heat, floods, and bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About acoat's Lagoon's Climate Risk Profile

acoat's Lagoon, located in the Northern Territory, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are rising temperatures and increased frequency of heatwaves, which can impact public health and infrastructure. Flooding is also a significant risk, especially in low-lying areas near waterways, with the potential for increased rainfall intensity exacerbating the problem.

Bushfire risk is present, although not as severe as in some other regions. Dry vegetation and seasonal winds can contribute to fire hazards, particularly during the dry season. Coastal risks, including sea level rise and storm surges, also need to be considered, although the immediate impact may be less pronounced compared to other coastal communities.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will likely intensify in the coming decades. Residents and local authorities should take proactive measures to adapt to these changes, including implementing heatwave management plans, improving flood defenses, and managing vegetation to reduce bushfire hazards.

Addressing climate change impacts in acoat's Lagoon requires a multi-faceted approach, involving community engagement, infrastructure improvements, and policy changes. By taking action now, the community can build resilience and protect itself from the worst effects of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Emergency Services · NT Government

Local Government Resources

Unincorporated NT

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for acoat's Lagoon?

The main risks include increased heatwaves, flooding, and bushfire risk. Sea level rise is also a concern, though less immediate.

How will climate change affect property values in acoat's Lagoon?

Increasing climate risks may negatively impact property values, particularly for properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents should stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Northern Territory government is developing climate change strategies and investing in infrastructure improvements to mitigate climate risks.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in acoat's Lagoon?

Flood risk maps are available on the Northern Territory government's website.

Are there any community initiatives to address climate change in acoat's Lagoon?

Check with local community groups and the Northern Territory government for information on local climate action initiatives.

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