Climate Risk in Burnie, Tasmania

Burnie, Tasmania· 7320

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Burnie faces a moderate climate risk, primarily driven by coastal hazards and increasing temperatures. Sea level rise and potential for flooding pose significant challenges to the region. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Burnie

increasing

Flood

60/100

Burnie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

40/100

Burnie has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Tasmania, but areas near bushland are still susceptible, especially during dry periods.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Burnie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

70/100

Burnie faces a high coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion and inundation, impacting infrastructure and coastal communities.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Burnie

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Burnie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Burnie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

Burnie faces a high coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion and inundation, impacting infrastructure and coastal communities.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Burnie has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Tasmania, but areas near bushland are still susceptible, especially during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions
·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk coastal areas.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion zones.
2.Assess property's elevation and drainage.
3.Inquire about past flood or coastal damage.
4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Emu River
Elevation Range: 0-100m
Flood Zone: Coastal and riverine floodplains

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 5km of residential areas
Planning Overlay: UNKNOWN
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 22°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 1 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: High
Erosion Risk: Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2016

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in Burnie due to heavy rainfall, causing damage to homes and businesses.

Source

2018

stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to infrastructure and power outages in Burnie.

Source

2020

floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Burnie due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.1(+0.1)	4.3(+0.3)
heat	50	5.2(+0.2)	5.7(+0.7)
coastal	70	7.4(+0.4)	8.2(+1.2)

By 2030, Burnie is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from flooding and coastal hazards. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Construct coastal defenses

Near-term

Build seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop heat action plan

Immediate

Create a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Relocate critical infrastructure

Long-term

Relocate critical infrastructure away from high-risk coastal areas.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Burnie's Climate Risk Profile

Burnie, located on the north-west coast of Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal inundation due to sea level rise, increased flooding from more intense rainfall events, and rising average temperatures.

The coastal location of Burnie makes it particularly susceptible to sea level rise, which can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure. The risk of flooding is also increasing due to more frequent and intense rainfall events, which can overwhelm drainage systems and cause flash flooding.

Rising temperatures are another concern for Burnie, with projections indicating more frequent and severe heatwaves in the future. This can have impacts on human health, particularly for vulnerable populations, as well as on agriculture and other industries.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation strategies may include building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and developing heat action plans. Mitigation efforts will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment

Local Government Resources

Burnie City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Burnie?

The main climate risks facing Burnie are coastal inundation due to sea level rise, increased flooding from more intense rainfall events, and rising average temperatures.

How will sea level rise affect Burnie?

Sea level rise can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure in Burnie.

What can be done to reduce the risk of flooding in Burnie?

Improving drainage systems and constructing flood defenses can help reduce the risk of flooding in Burnie.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Burnie?

Stay hydrated, seek shade, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Burnie?

You can find more information about climate change in Burnie on the Burnie City Council website and the Tasmanian Government's Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment website.