Climate Risk in Dunalley, Tasmania

Dunalley, Tasmania
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Dunalley faces a number of climate-related risks, particularly from coastal hazards and flooding. The area is also susceptible to bushfires and heatwaves, which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Residents should take steps to prepare for these risks and adapt to a changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
5.1
Coastal
7.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Dunalley

increasing

Flood

65/100

Dunalley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to localised flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Dunalley is moderate, given the surrounding bushland and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

51/100

Dunalley is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

74/100

Dunalley is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low elevation and direct exposure to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges pose a significant threat.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Dunalley

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

51/100

Dunalley is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.6

2050

6.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Dunalley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to localised flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

74/100

Dunalley is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low elevation and direct exposure to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges pose a significant threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.9

2050

8.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Dunalley is moderate, given the surrounding bushland and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal hazards.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Pitt Water
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Tasmanian Fire Service Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
23.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1.2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireCatastrophic

The Dunalley bushfire destroyed over 90 homes and caused widespread damage to the town.

Source
2018
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure in Dunalley.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Dunalley experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in low-lying areas of Dunalley.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.7(+0.2)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire424.3(+0.1)4.7(+0.5)
heat515.5(+0.4)6.0(+0.9)
coastal747.9(+0.5)8.9(+1.5)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Dunalley is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and heatwaves posing the greatest challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Immediate

Implement measures to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plan

Near-term

Create a comprehensive bushfire management plan that includes fuel reduction, community education, and evacuation procedures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Long-term

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness of Climate Risks

Long-term

Educate the community about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for them.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Dunalley's Climate Risk Profile

Dunalley, Tasmania, is a coastal town that is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Its low-lying location makes it susceptible to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. These hazards pose a significant threat to infrastructure, property, and the local economy.

In addition to coastal hazards, Dunalley is also at risk from flooding due to heavy rainfall events. The town's drainage infrastructure may not be adequate to handle increased rainfall intensity, leading to localised flooding and damage.

The risk of bushfires is also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could exacerbate the risk.

Finally, Dunalley is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important for residents to take steps to protect themselves from the heat, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in infrastructure, community education, and adaptation measures. By taking proactive steps, Dunalley can build resilience and protect itself from the worst impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian Fire Service · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · DPIPWE

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Dunalley?

Dunalley is primarily at risk from coastal hazards, flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Sea level rise and storm surges pose a significant threat to coastal infrastructure and property. Increased rainfall intensity can lead to localised flooding. The risk of bushfires is also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months. Finally, Dunalley is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

How will sea level rise affect Dunalley?

Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and increase the risk of inundation from storm surges. Low-lying areas of Dunalley are particularly vulnerable. This could lead to damage to property, infrastructure, and the local economy.

What can I do to prepare for a bushfire?

Prepare a bushfire survival plan, clear vegetation around your home, and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings. If a fire threatens your property, follow the instructions of emergency services.

How can I protect myself during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Check on vulnerable neighbours and family members. Be aware of the symptoms of heatstroke and seek medical attention if necessary.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Tasman Council is developing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable transportation. The council is also working to improve drainage infrastructure and protect coastal areas.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Tasmania?

You can find more information about climate change in Tasmania on the Tasmanian Government's Climate Change website (https://www.climatechange.tas.gov.au/) and the CSIRO website (https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change).

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections