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Climate Risk Profile: Eaglehawk Neck, TAS

Eaglehawk Neck, Tasmania
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Eaglehawk Neck faces significant climate-related risks, particularly from coastal hazards and bushfires. Sea level rise and increasing temperatures are expected to exacerbate these threats. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
3.0
Coastal
9.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Eaglehawk Neck

increasing

Flood

40/100

Eaglehawk Neck faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and storm surges. The low-lying geography makes it susceptible to inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Eaglehawk Neck has a notable bushfire risk due to the surrounding dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

30/100

Eaglehawk Neck experiences relatively mild temperatures, but heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

90/100

Eaglehawk Neck is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low elevation and direct exposure to the ocean. Sea level rise and erosion are significant threats.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Eaglehawk Neck

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

30/100

Eaglehawk Neck experiences relatively mild temperatures, but heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Eaglehawk Neck faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and storm surges. The low-lying geography makes it susceptible to inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

90/100

Eaglehawk Neck is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low elevation and direct exposure to the ocean. Sea level rise and erosion are significant threats.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.5

2050

10.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area around Eaglehawk Neck has a notable bushfire risk due to the surrounding dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by climate change.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Norfolk Bay
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation zone

Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to tidal inundation and storm surges.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire-prone area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Surrounding vegetation creates a significant bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Significant erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the Tasman Peninsula, including areas near Eaglehawk Neck, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2018
stormModerate

A severe storm caused coastal erosion and flooding in Eaglehawk Neck.

Source
2020
heatwaveMinor

A heatwave event led to increased heat stress in vulnerable populations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.5(+1.5)
bushfire606.5(+0.5)7.5(+1.5)
heat303.5(+0.5)4.5(+1.5)
coastal909.5(+0.5)10.5(+1.5)

By 2030, Eaglehawk Neck is projected to experience increased coastal erosion, more frequent bushfires, and more intense heatwaves under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to protect against sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies such as fuel reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Emergency Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement emergency preparedness plans for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

Long-term

Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate change.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Eaglehawk Neck's Climate Risk Profile

Eaglehawk Neck, a narrow isthmus connecting the Tasman Peninsula to mainland Tasmania, is uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Its low-lying geography makes it highly susceptible to sea level rise and coastal erosion, threatening infrastructure and natural ecosystems.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern, with the surrounding dry vegetation creating a high fuel load. Increasing temperatures and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

While heatwaves are less severe than in other parts of Australia, they are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges is also a concern, particularly in low-lying areas.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from local and state governments, as well as individual residents. Adaptation measures such as coastal protection, bushfire mitigation, and improved emergency preparedness are essential to protect the community and its assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasman Council

Local Government Resources

Tasman Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Eaglehawk Neck?

The main risks are sea level rise, coastal erosion, increased bushfire risk, and more frequent heatwaves.

How will sea level rise affect Eaglehawk Neck?

Sea level rise will lead to increased coastal inundation, erosion, and loss of land.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about emergency preparedness?

Visit the Tasmanian State Emergency Service website for information about emergency preparedness.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Tasman Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies.

Get your property's risk report

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