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Climate Risk in Hobart, Tasmania

Hobart, Tasmania· City of Hobart· 7000
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Hobart faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal inundation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Hobart

increasing

Flood

65/100

Hobart faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Derwent River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Hobart is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland being more vulnerable. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

55/100

Hobart is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Coastal inundation and erosion are potential risks for Hobart due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas along the Derwent River are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Hobart

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Hobart is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Hobart faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Derwent River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Coastal inundation and erosion are potential risks for Hobart due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas along the Derwent River are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Hobart is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland being more vulnerable. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfire, or coastal inundation.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal inundation.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Derwent River
Elevation Range
0-1270m
Flood Zone
Areas along the Derwent River and its tributaries

The City of Hobart has implemented various flood mitigation measures, including improved drainage systems and flood levees.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Ranges from 0m to 5km depending on location within the suburb
Planning Overlay
Bushfire-prone area overlays are in effect in certain parts of Hobart.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Tasmania Fire Service provides information and resources on bushfire safety and preparedness.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
22°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Hobart, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some coastal areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

1960
floodMajor

Major flooding occurred in the Derwent Valley, impacting Hobart and surrounding areas.

Source
1967
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Tuesday bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life across Tasmania, including areas near Hobart.

Source
2018
stormModerate

A severe storm caused widespread damage across Hobart, including power outages and fallen trees.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Hobart area due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat556.2(+0.7)6.7(+1.2)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Hobart is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, as well as a higher risk of flooding and coastal inundation. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect low-lying areas from flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Strengthen bushfire preparedness

Immediate

Implement stricter building codes in bushfire-prone areas and provide residents with resources to prepare for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from erosion and inundation, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Hobart's Climate Risk Profile

Hobart, the capital city of Tasmania, is situated on the Derwent River and surrounded by hills, making it susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The city's proximity to the coast and waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding and coastal inundation, while nearby bushland poses a bushfire risk.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Hobart. This includes more frequent and intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall events, and rising sea levels. These changes will likely exacerbate the existing risks and create new challenges for the city.

Flooding is a significant concern for Hobart, particularly in low-lying areas along the Derwent River. Heavy rainfall can cause the river to overflow its banks, inundating homes and businesses. Additionally, flash flooding can occur in urban areas due to inadequate drainage.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, especially in areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Residents in these areas should take precautions to protect their homes and families.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmania Fire Service · State Emergency Service Tasmania · City of Hobart

Local Government Resources

City of Hobart

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Hobart?

Hobart faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal inundation, all of which are expected to be exacerbated by climate change.

How is the City of Hobart preparing for climate change?

The City of Hobart is implementing various adaptation measures, including improving flood defenses, strengthening bushfire preparedness, and protecting coastal areas.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Hobart?

You can take steps to protect your home from flooding and bushfires, develop a heatwave plan, and stay informed about the latest climate change projections.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Hobart?

You can find more information on the City of Hobart website, the Tasmania Fire Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Are insurance premiums likely to increase due to climate change?

Yes, insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfire, or coastal inundation.

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