Climate Risk in Mowbray, Tasmania

Mowbray, Tasmania· 7248

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Mowbray faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.5

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mowbray

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mowbray faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tamar River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Mowbray has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

55/100

Mowbray is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Mowbray faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its location near the Tamar River. Sea level rise and increased storm surge could lead to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mowbray

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Mowbray is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mowbray faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tamar River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Mowbray faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its location near the Tamar River. Sea level rise and increased storm surge could lead to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Mowbray has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to climate hazards.
3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Tamar River
Elevation Range: 5-20 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near the Tamar River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to areas of bushland.
Planning Overlay: Check Tasmania Fire Service for bushfire prone area overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 24°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Some coastal erosion is present.

Historical Climate Events

2016

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in northern Tasmania, impacting Mowbray.

Source

2013

bushfireMinor

Bushfires impacted areas near Mowbray, causing smoke haze.

Source

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Tasmania, with record temperatures recorded.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.6(+0.6)
heat	55	6.2(+0.7)	6.7(+1.2)
coastal	50	5.4(+0.4)	5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Mowbray is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and coastal hazards are also expected to worsen.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood defenses such as levees and drainage improvements to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire preparedness measures such as clearing vegetation around homes and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Coastal Management Strategy

Long-term

Develop a coastal management strategy to address the risks of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Mowbray's Climate Risk Profile

Mowbray, located in Tasmania, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. Its proximity to the Tamar River increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to intensify rainfall events, leading to more frequent and severe flooding in the region.

The surrounding vegetation also poses a bushfire risk to Mowbray. Hotter, drier conditions, driven by climate change, are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, potentially threatening homes and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense in Mowbray. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during heatwaves and be aware of the signs of heatstroke.

Finally, Mowbray's location near the coast makes it vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge. These hazards could lead to inundation and erosion, potentially damaging property and infrastructure. Planning for these changes is essential to protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmania Fire Service · Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mowbray?

Mowbray faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks.

How will climate change impact property values in Mowbray?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased climate risks.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Mowbray?

You can take steps to protect your property from flooding and bushfires, and develop a plan for coping with heatwaves.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Tasmania?

You can find information on the websites of the Tasmanian government, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Is Mowbray a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

It depends on the location of the property and your risk tolerance. Properties in low-risk areas may still be a good investment, but it's important to consider the potential impacts of climate change.