Climate Risk in Nubeena, Tasmania

Nubeena, Tasmania· 7184

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Nubeena faces a moderate overall climate risk, with coastal hazards posing the most significant threat. Rising sea levels and increased storm intensity are expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heatwaves and bushfire seasons.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

8.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Nubeena

increasing

Flood

60/100

Nubeena faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall and rising sea levels.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Nubeena is moderate due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Nubeena is experiencing an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves. This trend is projected to continue, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

80/100

Nubeena is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Nubeena

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Nubeena is experiencing an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves. This trend is projected to continue, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

coastal Risk

80/100

Nubeena is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Nubeena is moderate due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.1

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of coastal inundation and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties close to the coast may experience a decrease in value due to the risk of coastal erosion and inundation.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
2.Assess bushfire risk and ensure property is adequately protected.
3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise on property value.
4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Parsons Bay
Elevation Range: 0-50m
Flood Zone: Coastal and riverine floodplains

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: Tasman Fire Service Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 1.2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: High
Erosion Risk: Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the Tasman Peninsula, including areas near Nubeena, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source

2018

stormModerate

Severe storms caused coastal erosion and flooding in Nubeena.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Tasmania, including Nubeena, leading to increased heat stress and health concerns.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.2(+1.2)
bushfire	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.1(+1.1)
heat	50	5.5(+0.5)	6.3(+1.3)
coastal	80	8.5(+0.5)	9.2(+1.2)

By 2030, Nubeena is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to protect against coastal erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and fire breaks, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Flood Management

Long-term

Improve drainage infrastructure and implement flood management strategies to reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Nubeena's Climate Risk Profile

Nubeena, located on the Tasman Peninsula in Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal inundation, flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The region's low-lying coastal areas are particularly susceptible to sea level rise and storm surges, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

Flooding is another concern, with heavy rainfall events becoming more frequent and intense. This can lead to flash flooding and damage to property and infrastructure. The surrounding bushland also poses a bushfire risk, especially during dry and hot conditions. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The combination of these factors makes Nubeena a region that requires careful planning and adaptation to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing adaptation measures, and raising community awareness. By taking proactive steps, Nubeena can build resilience and protect its community and environment from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasman Fire Service · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · DPIPWE

Local Government Resources

Tasman Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Nubeena?

The main climate change risks in Nubeena include coastal inundation, flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The region's low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges.

How is climate change expected to impact property values in Nubeena?

Properties close to the coast may experience a decrease in value due to the risk of coastal erosion and inundation. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase due to the increasing risk of climate-related hazards.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change in Nubeena?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change by implementing coastal protection measures, mitigating bushfire risk, developing a heatwave preparedness plan, and improving drainage infrastructure.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Nubeena?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Nubeena from the Tasman Council, the Tasmanian State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Nubeena?

The Tasman Council is working to address climate change by developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, improving infrastructure resilience, and raising community awareness.