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Climate Risk Assessment for Smithton, TAS

Smithton, Tasmania· 7330
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Smithton faces a range of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and changing weather patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
5.1
Coastal
7.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Smithton

increasing

Flood

65/100

Smithton faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Duck River and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Smithton is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat during dry periods. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

51/100

Smithton experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This could impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

74/100

Smithton is at high risk from coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea level rise and increased storm surge events pose a significant threat to infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Smithton

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

51/100

Smithton experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This could impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.6

2050

6.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Smithton faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Duck River and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

74/100

Smithton is at high risk from coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea level rise and increased storm surge events pose a significant threat to infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.9

2050

8.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Smithton is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat during dry periods. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Duck River
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine flood zones

Low-lying areas near the river are particularly vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire-prone area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check local fire restrictions during summer months.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1.2 days

Elderly and those with chronic illnesses are most at risk during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline

Historical Climate Events

2016
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted Smithton, causing damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused smoke haze and increased fire risk in Smithton.

Source
2020
stormModerate

Severe storms caused power outages and property damage in Smithton.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after heavy rainfall, affecting some residential areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat515.2(+0.1)5.5(+0.4)
coastal747.8(+0.4)8.3(+0.9)

By 2030, Smithton is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and flooding posing the greatest threats. Heatwaves and bushfire risk are also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate erosion and inundation from sea level rise.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plan

Near-term

Create and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Long-term

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during drier periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Smithton's Climate Risk Profile

Smithton, located in Tasmania, is vulnerable to several climate change impacts. The town's proximity to the Duck River and the coast makes it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising sea levels and more intense rainfall events are projected to increase the frequency and severity of these events.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry periods. Higher temperatures and drier conditions could lead to more frequent and intense bushfires, impacting property and human health.

Heatwaves are expected to become more common, potentially straining infrastructure and impacting vulnerable populations. The town's infrastructure may need upgrades to cope with these changes.

Coastal erosion is another significant threat, with rising sea levels and increased storm surges potentially damaging coastal properties and infrastructure. Protecting coastal areas will be crucial for the town's long-term sustainability.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. Implementing adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and protecting coastal areas, will be essential to building resilience and ensuring the town's future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Smithton?

Smithton faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Smithton?

Sea level rise could lead to increased coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas in Smithton.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Smithton?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Smithton?

Contact the local council or the State Emergency Service for information about flood maps and flood preparedness.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Smithton?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is my property insurance likely to increase due to climate change?

Potentially, yes. Insurance premiums in Smithton may increase due to the increased risk of climate-related events.

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$300B+
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30-120%
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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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