Climate Risk in South Arm, Tasmania

South Arm, Tasmania· Clarence· 7022

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

South Arm faces a range of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

6.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for South Arm

increasing

Flood

45/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

South Arm has a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer months exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Drier vegetation

increasing

Heat

40/100

South Arm experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

increasing

Coastal

63/100

South Arm is exposed to coastal risks, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to worsen with climate change, threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm surge intensity

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for South Arm

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

South Arm experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

South Arm faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

6.0

Data source

coastal Risk

63/100

South Arm is exposed to coastal risks, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to worsen with climate change, threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm surge intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

South Arm has a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer months exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Drier vegetation
·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price impacts.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal hazards.
3.Consider the potential for increased insurance premiums.
4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Frederick Henry Bay
Elevation Range: 0-50 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near the coast and low-lying areas are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay: Bushfire-prone area overlay applies to parts of South Arm.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 1.2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Some coastal areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near South Arm, requiring evacuations and property protection efforts.

Source

2018

stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to coastal infrastructure and properties in South Arm.

Source

2022

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of South Arm.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.3(+0.8)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	7.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.7(+0.7)
coastal	63	6.9(+0.6)	7.8(+1.5)

By 2030, South Arm is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in coastal and bushfire risks. Flooding and heat risks are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a household emergency plan

Immediate

Create a plan that includes evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a supply kit.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Harden your home against bushfires

Near-term

Clear vegetation around your home, install ember guards, and ensure your roof and gutters are well-maintained.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install a rainwater tank

Long-term

Collect rainwater for non-potable uses to reduce reliance on mains water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support local climate action initiatives

Near-term

Participate in community efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build climate resilience.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About South Arm's Climate Risk Profile

South Arm, located in Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb faces a combination of risks, including flooding from heavy rainfall and coastal inundation, bushfire threats due to dry conditions and proximity to bushland, heatwaves with rising average temperatures, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase with more intense rainfall events and potential storm surges. Bushfire risk is also projected to rise due to hotter, drier conditions. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Coastal erosion and sea level rise threaten coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Residents can take steps to prepare for extreme weather events, such as developing emergency plans and hardening their homes. Local authorities can implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts.

Protecting South Arm from the worst effects of climate change will require a concerted effort from individuals, communities, and governments. By working together, we can create a more sustainable and resilient future for this coastal suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmania Fire Service · Tasmania State Emergency Service · Clarence City Council

Local Government Resources

Clarence City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing South Arm?

South Arm faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, all of which are projected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires in South Arm?

Clear vegetation around your home, install ember guards, and ensure your roof and gutters are well-maintained. Have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in South Arm?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in South Arm?

The Clarence City Council provides flood maps and information on its website. The SES also provides information.

How is the Clarence City Council addressing climate change?

The Clarence City Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build climate resilience. Check their website for details.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in South Arm, use our analysis tool.

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