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Climate Risk in St Marys, Tasmania

St Marys, Tasmania· Break O'Day· 7215
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

St Marys faces increasing risks from bushfires, floods, and heatwaves due to climate change. The inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for St Marys

increasing

Flood

45/100

St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding St Marys has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

40/100

St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Heatwave frequency
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risks are minimal in St Marys due to its inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for St Marys

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Heatwave frequency
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risks are minimal in St Marys due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding St Marys has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
St Marys Rivulet
Elevation Range
Varies, some low-lying areas
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near the rivulet

Historical flood events have occurred in St Marys, particularly affecting properties near the St Marys Rivulet.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire-prone area overlay may apply
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is prone to bushfires due to dry conditions and surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
24°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1.5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, with potential impacts on elderly and vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in St Marys, affecting several properties near the St Marys Rivulet.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire risk in St Marys.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

St Marys experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood454.7(+0.2)4.9(+0.4)4.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.2(+1.2)
heat404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)4.4(+0.4)4.8(+0.8)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, St Marys is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive plan for bushfire preparedness, including clearing vegetation, maintaining firebreaks, and establishing evacuation routes.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement a Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run workshops and distribute information on how residents can prepare for and respond to climate-related hazards.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About St Marys's Climate Risk Profile

St Marys, Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are the rising risks of bushfires, exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and severe, posing a threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations.

The risk of bushfires is driven by the surrounding dense vegetation and projected increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall. These conditions create a higher fuel load and a greater likelihood of ignition. Flooding risks are associated with the proximity of waterways and the potential for heavy rainfall to overwhelm drainage systems.

While St Marys is not directly exposed to coastal hazards due to its inland location, the broader regional impacts of sea-level rise and coastal erosion could indirectly affect the community. Changes in agricultural productivity and tourism patterns could also have economic consequences.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing the pace of climate change. At the local level, measures such as improving bushfire preparedness, upgrading drainage infrastructure, and implementing heatwave action plans can help to protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Tasmania · Fire Service Tasmania · Break O'Day Council

Local Government Resources

Break O'Day Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in St Marys?

The main risks are increased bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and increased flooding due to heavy rainfall.

How will climate change affect property values in St Marys?

Increasing climate risks may negatively impact property values, particularly for properties in bushfire-prone or flood-prone areas. Insurance costs may also increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Break O'Day Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting bushfire preparedness.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

Where can I find information about flood risks in St Marys?

You can find flood maps and information on the SES Tasmania website and the Break O'Day Council website.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on elderly and vulnerable neighbors.

Get your property's risk report

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