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Climate Risk Assessment for Swansea, Tasmania

Swansea, Tasmania· Glamorgan-Spring Bay· 7190
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Swansea, Tasmania, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from coastal hazards and flooding. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are also contributing to increased bushfire and heat risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Swansea

increasing

Flood

60/100

Swansea faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to the Swan River. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Swansea has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Swansea is experiencing an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to further increase average temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

70/100

Swansea is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise and increased storm surge are projected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Swansea

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Swansea is experiencing an increase in the number of hot days and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to further increase average temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Swansea faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to the Swan River. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

Swansea is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise and increased storm surge are projected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Swansea has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of flooding, bushfires, and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance coverage and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Swan River
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Swansea has experienced several flooding events in the past, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall and high tides. The low-lying areas near the Swan River are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Swansea is classified as a bushfire-prone area. Residents should be aware of the risks and take necessary precautions, especially during the summer months.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
23.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Swansea is experiencing an increase in the number of days exceeding 30°C. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to public health.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Significant

Historical Climate Events

2018
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Swansea, impacting several properties.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Swansea threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2007
stormMajor

A severe storm caused significant damage to coastal infrastructure and properties in Swansea.

Source
2003
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in Swansea due to heavy rainfall and high tides.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.2(+1.2)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.8(+0.8)
heat505.4(+0.4)6.0(+1.0)
coastal707.8(+0.8)9.0(+2.0)

By 2030, Swansea is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk. Coastal hazards and flooding are expected to worsen due to sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity. Bushfire and heat risks will also increase, but to a lesser extent.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and dune restoration to reduce the impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Flood Management Planning

Near-term

Develop and implement a comprehensive flood management plan that includes improved drainage infrastructure, flood warning systems, and evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures such as vegetation management, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan that includes public awareness campaigns, cooling centers, and support for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education and Awareness

Long-term

Raise community awareness about climate change risks and adaptation measures through workshops, information sessions, and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Swansea's Climate Risk Profile

Swansea, located on the east coast of Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise, as well as increased flooding from more intense rainfall events. The town's low-lying coastal geography makes it particularly susceptible to these hazards.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with hotter and drier conditions projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the surrounding areas. This poses a threat to both property and human safety. Additionally, rising average temperatures are leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have significant health impacts, especially for vulnerable populations.

The local council and state government are working to address these challenges through various adaptation strategies, including coastal protection measures, improved emergency management planning, and community awareness programs. However, further action is needed to mitigate the long-term risks and ensure the resilience of the community.

Residents can take steps to protect themselves and their properties by preparing for extreme weather events, maintaining their properties, and staying informed about local risks and emergency plans. It is crucial to understand the changing climate and its potential impacts on Swansea to ensure a safe and sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Glamorgan-Spring Bay Council · Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment

Local Government Resources

Glamorgan-Spring Bay Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Swansea?

The main climate change risks in Swansea include coastal inundation, erosion, flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are major drivers of these risks.

How will sea level rise affect Swansea?

Sea level rise is projected to cause increased coastal inundation and erosion in Swansea, threatening properties and infrastructure. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can protect your property from flooding by elevating structures, improving drainage, installing flood barriers, and obtaining flood insurance.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Swansea?

You can prepare for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, creating a bushfire survival plan, and having an emergency kit ready.

What resources are available to help me adapt to climate change in Swansea?

The Glamorgan-Spring Bay Council, the Tasmanian State Emergency Service, and the Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment provide resources and support for climate change adaptation.

Where can I find information about emergency evacuation routes in Swansea?

Information about emergency evacuation routes can be found on the Glamorgan-Spring Bay Council website and through the Tasmanian State Emergency Service.

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