Climate Risk in Ulverstone, Tasmania

Ulverstone, Tasmania· Central Coast· 7315

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Ulverstone faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by coastal hazards and flooding. The area is also susceptible to increasing heatwaves and bushfire risk. Residents should prepare for the impacts of climate change and take steps to mitigate their vulnerability.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.5

Heat

4.0

Coastal

7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ulverstone

increasing

Flood

65/100

Ulverstone faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Leven River and coastal areas. Increased rainfall intensity and sea-level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea-level rise

increasing

Bushfire

35/100

The bushfire risk in Ulverstone is relatively low compared to other regions in Tasmania, but it's still present due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and increased temperatures could elevate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

40/100

Ulverstone experiences moderate heat risk. While not as extreme as mainland Australia, increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are expected to impact the community.

Key drivers:

·Increased average temperatures
·More frequent heatwaves

increasing

Coastal

70/100

Ulverstone is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea-level rise and increased storm surges pose a significant threat to infrastructure and coastal ecosystems.

Key drivers:

·Sea-level rise
·Increased storm surge

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ulverstone

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Ulverstone experiences moderate heat risk. While not as extreme as mainland Australia, increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are expected to impact the community.

Primary Drivers

·Increased average temperatures
·More frequent heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Ulverstone faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Leven River and coastal areas. Increased rainfall intensity and sea-level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea-level rise
·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

Ulverstone is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea-level rise and increased storm surges pose a significant threat to infrastructure and coastal ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

·Sea-level rise
·Increased storm surge
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

35/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.0

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
3.Consider the potential impact of sea-level rise.
4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Leven River
Elevation Range: 0-50 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near the Leven River and coastal regions are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 1km of residential areas
Planning Overlay: Some areas are designated as bushfire-prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 22°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 1.5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Erosion Risk: Coastal erosion is an ongoing concern in some parts of Ulverstone.

Historical Climate Events

2016

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in Ulverstone due to heavy rainfall, impacting homes and businesses near the Leven River.

Source

2013

bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Ulverstone caused some concern, but was quickly contained by fire services.

Source

2007

stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Ulverstone, with strong winds and heavy rain.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.1(+0.6)
bushfire	35	3.7(+0.2)	3.9(+0.4)
heat	40	4.1(+0.1)	4.3(+0.3)
coastal	70	7.4(+0.4)	7.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Ulverstone is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and flooding posing the most significant threats. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to protect vulnerable areas from sea-level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Flood Mitigation Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and construct flood levees to reduce the risk of riverine flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Promote bushfire preparedness among residents and implement fuel reduction programs in surrounding bushland.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Long-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ulverstone's Climate Risk Profile

Ulverstone, located on the north coast of Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks stem from its coastal location and proximity to the Leven River, making it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion.

Rising sea levels and more intense storm surges pose a significant threat to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate riverine flooding, impacting residential and commercial areas.

While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Tasmania, drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires in the surrounding areas. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense, impacting public health and infrastructure.

Adapting to these changes will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. Implementing coastal protection measures, improving drainage infrastructure, and promoting bushfire preparedness are crucial steps to mitigate the risks. Residents should also consider the long-term implications of climate change when making property decisions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Central Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Central Coast Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Ulverstone?

The main climate change risks in Ulverstone are coastal flooding, riverine flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Sea-level rise and increased rainfall intensity are expected to exacerbate these risks.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Central Coast Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies, including coastal protection measures, flood mitigation infrastructure, and bushfire preparedness programs.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change?

Residents can prepare for climate change by checking flood maps, assessing their property's vulnerability to bushfires, considering the potential impact of sea-level rise, and inquiring about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Will insurance premiums increase due to climate change?

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding and coastal erosion. It's important to check with your insurance provider about your coverage.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Ulverstone?

You can find more information about climate change in Ulverstone on the Central Coast Council website, the Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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