Climate Risk in Ballyrogan, Victoria

Ballyrogan, Victoria· South Gippsland
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Ballyrogan faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal hazards. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for the community and local economy. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ballyrogan

increasing

Flood

65/100

Ballyrogan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Ballyrogan has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Ballyrogan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Ballyrogan faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges are expected to increase coastal erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ballyrogan

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Ballyrogan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Ballyrogan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Ballyrogan faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges are expected to increase coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Ballyrogan has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increased risk of extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about local government plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tarwin River
Elevation Range
5-20m
Flood Zone
Partial

Low-lying areas near the Tarwin River are susceptible to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the presence of surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

The average maximum temperature in January is expected to increase in the coming years, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in South Gippsland, impacting Ballyrogan and surrounding areas.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires caused widespread devastation across Victoria, including areas near Ballyrogan.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected much of Victoria, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in Ballyrogan.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of South Gippsland, including Ballyrogan.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.8(+1.3)
bushfire404.5(+0.5)5.2(+1.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.3(+1.3)
coastal535.8(+0.5)6.6(+1.3)

By 2030, Ballyrogan is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher temperatures, more intense rainfall, and increased bushfire risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Immediate

Conduct fuel reduction burns and implement other bushfire management strategies to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents and businesses to conserve water through education and incentives.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including opening cooling centers and providing assistance to those in need.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and dune restoration to reduce the risk of coastal erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Ballyrogan's Climate Risk Profile

Ballyrogan, located in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, leading to increased heat stress for residents, particularly the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Changes in rainfall patterns are projected to increase the risk of both flooding and drought, impacting agriculture and water resources.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern for Ballyrogan. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, threatening lives, property, and the natural environment. Coastal erosion and inundation are also potential threats, particularly in low-lying areas along the coast.

Adapting to these changes will require a concerted effort from individuals, businesses, and local government. This includes investing in infrastructure to reduce flood risk, implementing bushfire management strategies, and promoting water conservation. It also means preparing for more extreme weather events and taking steps to protect vulnerable populations.

The long-term sustainability of Ballyrogan depends on taking action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. By working together, the community can build a more resilient and sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · South Gippsland Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Ballyrogan?

Ballyrogan faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Ballyrogan?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of extreme weather events.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The South Gippsland Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts.

How can I prepare my home for extreme weather events?

You can prepare your home by clearing gutters, trimming trees, and creating a bushfire survival plan. Consider installing flood protection measures if your property is at risk of flooding.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Ballyrogan?

You can find more information on the South Gippsland Shire Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

What kind of financial assistance is available for climate resilience measures?

Contact the South Gippsland Shire Council to inquire about available grants and programs for climate resilience and adaptation measures for your property.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections