Climate Risk in Belgrave South, Victoria

Belgrave South, Victoria

High Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Belgrave South faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a threat. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

8.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Belgrave South

increasing

Flood

65/100

Belgrave South faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Belgrave South has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily vegetated areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

60/100

Belgrave South experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Belgrave South is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Belgrave South

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Belgrave South experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Belgrave South faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Belgrave South is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Belgrave South has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily vegetated areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Obtain insurance quotes.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Monbulk Creek
Elevation Range: 180-300m
Flood Zone: Areas near Monbulk Creek are designated as flood zones.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to Dandenong Ranges National Park
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO)
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 45 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1997

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Belgrave South, affecting several properties.

Source

2009

bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires caused significant damage in the Dandenong Ranges, with Belgrave South experiencing ember attacks and property damage.

Source

2019

stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Belgrave South.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.0(+0.5)
bushfire	80	8.7(+0.7)	9.0(+1.0)
heat	60	6.5(+0.5)	6.8(+0.8)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Belgrave South is projected to experience an increase in bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions. Flooding risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire. Clear vegetation around your home and prepare a bushfire survival kit.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Insulation

Near-term

Insulate your home to reduce energy consumption and improve thermal comfort during heatwaves. Consider installing energy-efficient windows and shading devices.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install a Rainwater Tank

Near-term

Collect rainwater for use in your garden or for flushing toilets. This can help reduce your reliance on mains water and mitigate the impact of droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Climate Action Initiatives

Long-term

Participate in community-based climate action initiatives and advocate for policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote climate resilience.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Belgrave South's Climate Risk Profile

Belgrave South, Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb's location near heavily vegetated areas makes it particularly susceptible to bushfires during hot, dry conditions. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfire seasons.

Flooding is another significant concern for Belgrave South. Heavy rainfall events can cause local creeks and waterways to overflow, inundating properties in low-lying areas. Urban development and inadequate drainage infrastructure can further increase the risk of flooding. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.

Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a threat to Belgrave South. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are at higher risk of heat-related illnesses during extreme heat events. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate the impact of heatwaves in densely populated areas.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation strategies to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Residents, businesses, and local government all have a role to play in building a more resilient community. This includes implementing stricter building codes, improving drainage infrastructure, and promoting community awareness of climate risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Yarra Ranges Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Belgrave South?

The main climate risks in Belgrave South are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb's location near heavily vegetated areas makes it particularly susceptible to bushfires, while heavy rainfall events can cause flooding in low-lying areas. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a threat.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

To prepare your home for a bushfire, clear vegetation around your property, create a bushfire survival plan, and prepare a bushfire survival kit. Consider installing fire-resistant building materials and ensuring that your home is well-maintained.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members, and seek medical attention if you experience symptoms of heat stress.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

Yarra Ranges Council is implementing a range of initiatives to address climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting sustainable transport, and improving the resilience of the community to climate impacts. Visit the council's website for more information.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Belgrave South?

You can find more information about climate change projections for Belgrave South on the CSIRO website or the Bureau of Meteorology website. These websites provide detailed climate data and projections for different regions of Australia.

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This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Belgrave South, use our analysis tool.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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