Climate Risk in Belgrave, VIC

Belgrave, Victoria· 3160
High Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Belgrave faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Belgrave

increasing

Flood

65/100

Belgrave faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in a hilly area with significant rainfall. Creeks and waterways in the vicinity can overflow during heavy rain events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Belgrave has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily forested areas. The area is prone to bushfires during hot, dry, and windy conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

60/100

Belgrave experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Belgrave is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Belgrave

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Belgrave experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Belgrave faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in a hilly area with significant rainfall. Creeks and waterways in the vicinity can overflow during heavy rain events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Belgrave is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Belgrave has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily forested areas. The area is prone to bushfires during hot, dry, and windy conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Monbulk Creek
Elevation Range
180-400m
Flood Zone
Areas along Monbulk Creek are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the creek. Council provides sandbagging stations during flood warnings.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO)
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Belgrave is located within a designated bushfire prone area. Residents are required to maintain their properties to reduce fire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future. Vulnerable residents should have access to cooling centers.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1997
floodModerate

Severe flooding impacted Belgrave and surrounding areas, causing damage to homes and infrastructure.

Source
1983
bushfireMajor

The Ash Wednesday bushfires caused significant damage in the Dandenong Ranges, including areas near Belgrave.

Source
2009
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Dandenong Ranges threatened Belgrave, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2021
stormModerate

Severe storms caused widespread damage across the Dandenong Ranges, including Belgrave, with fallen trees and power outages.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire808.4(+0.4)8.7(+0.7)
heat606.2(+0.2)6.4(+0.4)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Belgrave is projected to experience an increase in bushfire and flood risk due to climate change. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire safety and property maintenance. Support residents in creating bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risk, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers along Monbulk Creek.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable residents during heatwaves. Implement urban greening initiatives to reduce the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Community Resilience

Long-term

Promote community engagement and collaboration in climate adaptation planning. Support local initiatives to build resilience to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Belgrave's Climate Risk Profile

Belgrave, located in the Dandenong Ranges, is particularly vulnerable to bushfires due to its surrounding dense forests. The area has a history of bushfire events, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these fires. Residents need to be vigilant and prepared, especially during the summer months.

Flooding is another significant concern for Belgrave. The hilly terrain and numerous creeks in the area make it susceptible to flash flooding during heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, further elevating the flood risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense in Belgrave. While not as extreme as in some other parts of Victoria, the increasing average temperatures can still pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Belgrave is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the community. It is crucial for Belgrave to implement adaptation measures to mitigate these risks and build resilience to climate change.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and state agencies. By working together, Belgrave can protect its community and environment from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Yarra Ranges Council · Melbourne Water

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Belgrave?

The main climate change risks in Belgrave are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining your gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, you should move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Belgrave?

You can find information about emergency services in Belgrave on the SES website or by contacting the Yarra Ranges Council.

How is the Yarra Ranges Council addressing climate change?

The Yarra Ranges Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts.

Are there any community groups in Belgrave focused on climate action?

Yes, there are several community groups in the Yarra Ranges focused on climate action. Check the Yarra Ranges Council website for a list of local groups.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections