Climate Risk in Buffalo River, Victoria

Buffalo River, Victoria· Alpine
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Buffalo River faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern due to the surrounding bushland. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Buffalo River

increasing

Flood

60/100

Buffalo River faces a moderate risk of flooding. This is primarily due to its proximity to the Buffalo River and other waterways, combined with increasing rainfall intensity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
stable

Bushfire

40/100

Buffalo River has a moderate risk of bushfire. The surrounding bushland increases the potential for fire during dry and windy conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High winds
increasing

Heat

50/100

Buffalo River experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves. Average temperatures are expected to rise, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Buffalo River has a low risk from coastal hazards. It is located inland and is not directly exposed to sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Elevation
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Buffalo River

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Buffalo River experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves. Average temperatures are expected to rise, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Buffalo River faces a moderate risk of flooding. This is primarily due to its proximity to the Buffalo River and other waterways, combined with increasing rainfall intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Buffalo River has a low risk from coastal hazards. It is located inland and is not directly exposed to sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Elevation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Buffalo River has a moderate risk of bushfire. The surrounding bushland increases the potential for fire during dry and windy conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High winds
  • ·Lightning strikes

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Ensure adequate home cooling for heatwaves.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Buffalo River
Elevation Range
200-300m
Flood Zone
Partial

The Buffalo River has a history of minor flooding events. Council maintains drainage infrastructure, but increased rainfall intensity poses a challenge.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area. Residents should adhere to CFA guidelines for property maintenance and fire safety.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are increasing. Heat stress events are becoming more frequent, particularly affecting elderly residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Moderate flooding occurred in Buffalo River due to heavy rainfall, impacting some properties near the river.

Source
2019
bushfireMinor

A minor bushfire occurred near Buffalo River, but was quickly contained by fire services.

Source
2009
heatwaveModerate

Victoria experienced a severe heatwave in early 2009, with Buffalo River recording high temperatures for several consecutive days.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in Buffalo River due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Buffalo River is projected to experience increased flooding and more frequent heatwaves under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain drainage systems to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Community Bushfire Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive bushfire plan for the community, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish a Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Implement a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Support vulnerable residents during extreme weather

Immediate

Provide assistance and resources to elderly and other vulnerable residents during heatwaves and floods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Buffalo River's Climate Risk Profile

Buffalo River, located in Victoria, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to the Buffalo River and increasing rainfall intensity, and heatwaves as average temperatures rise.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase in the coming decades, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure near the river. Residents should stay informed about flood warnings and take necessary precautions.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with the surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry and windy conditions. Maintaining vegetation around properties and having a bushfire plan are essential.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Ensuring access to cooling and staying hydrated are important during heat events.

While coastal risks are low, the overall climate risk profile suggests that Buffalo River needs to adapt to changing environmental conditions to protect its community and assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · CFA Victoria · Alpine Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Buffalo River?

The main climate risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Flooding is due to the Buffalo River and increasing rainfall, bushfires are a risk due to surrounding bushland, and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood warnings?

Flood warnings are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology and the State Emergency Service. You can also find information on the Alpine Shire Council website.

Is Buffalo River likely to experience water shortages in the future?

While not a major concern currently, water conservation is encouraged to mitigate the potential impacts of drought and water scarcity in the long term.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Alpine Shire Council has a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for details.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Buffalo River, use our analysis tool.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections